Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland: Group Rematch in Zenica
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Bosnia & Herzegovina host Poland in UEFA Nations League B on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Bilino Polje in Zenica, ten days after the two sides played out a 0-0 draw on 25 September.
Poland arrive off a 6-0 win over Romania
Poland responded emphatically to their opening fixtures in League B - Group 4. After drawing 0-0 with Bosnia & Herzegovina and suffering a 3-1 defeat away to Sweden on 28 September, Poland defeated Romania 6-0 on 2 October 2026. That result pushed their group goal difference to +4 across three matches.
Poland average 1.70 expected goals created and 1.00 allowed per game over their last three outings with available underlying metrics. R. Lewandowski leads Poland's attack with three goals in all competitions this season. However, Poland travel to Zenica without Filip Rózga and Jakub Kamiński, who are both sidelined through injury, while seeking their first away points in the group following the 3-1 loss in Sweden.
Bosnia & Herzegovina hold second place on five points
Bosnia & Herzegovina remain unbeaten in Group 4, holding second place with five points from three games. Following the 0-0 stalemate against Poland, they secured a 4-2 away victory against Romania on 28 September before drawing 1-1 at Bilino Polje against Sweden on 2 October 2026.
Top scorer Ermin Mahmić has scored three goals in all competitions this season for Bosnia & Herzegovina. While they have been difficult to beat, the home side generate fewer scoring opportunities than their visitors, recording 0.74 expected goals per match while conceding 0.88 over their last five games with chance data. With no injuries or suspensions reported, the host squad remains at full strength.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Poland win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Poland win for this fixture. The projection gives weight to Poland's offensive generation of 1.70 expected goals per game and their six-goal haul against Romania, set against Bosnia & Herzegovina's steady group form and Poland's previous away defeat in Sweden.
