Estonia vs Luxembourg

Estonia face Luxembourg in UEFA Nations League C Matchday 3 on Saturday, 3 October 2026, at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn, with only one point separating the sides in Group C4.

Estonia unbeaten after two successive away draws

Estonia return to Tallinn having navigated their opening two fixtures on the road without defeat. They opened their campaign with a 1-1 draw away at Iceland on 26 September 2026, before holding Bulgaria to a 0-0 draw away on 29 September 2026.

Those results leave Estonia third of four in League C - Group 4 with 2 points from 2 games, having scored once and conceded once for a neutral goal difference. Neither squad enters this match with confirmed absences, giving both sides fully available selections.

Luxembourg look to repeat their away success

Luxembourg sit second in League C - Group 4 with 3 points from 2 games, carrying a goal difference of -2 after scoring twice and allowing four. Their tournament began strongly on the road with a 2-1 victory away at Bulgaria on 26 September 2026, but that was followed by a 0-3 home defeat against Iceland on 29 September 2026.

Away from home in this competition, Luxembourg hold a flawless record of one win from one match, with two goals scored and one conceded. They now travel to Tallinn seeking another positive away display after that mixed start on home soil.

Our model leans towards a Luxembourg win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Luxembourg win. The call reflects Luxembourg's ability to claim all three points on their last road trip in Bulgaria, contrasted with Estonia's run of low-scoring draws in the opening week of the competition.