Luxembourg vs Bulgaria

Luxembourg face Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at Stade de Luxembourg in Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg), ten days after claiming a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture.

Sinani and Barreiro ruled out for Luxembourg

Luxembourg enter Matchday 4 third in League C - Group 4 with three points from three matches, but their squad is depleted in attacking areas. Danel Sinani is out through injury and Leandro Barreiro is serving a suspension. The two players scored Luxembourg's goals in the 2-1 win away to Bulgaria on 26 September.

Following that victory, Luxembourg failed to score in their next two matches, losing 3-0 at home against Iceland on 29 September and 1-0 away to Estonia on 3 October. In their opening home match in the group, they were defeated 3-0 at Stade de Luxembourg. Across their three matches with chance data, Luxembourg have averaged 0.68 expected goals created while conceding 1.69 expected goals per game.

Bulgaria seek first group win without Velkovski and Petkov

Bulgaria sit bottom of the four-team group with one point and a minus-four goal difference. They have scored once in three fixtures, courtesy of Asen Chandarov in the 2-1 home loss to Luxembourg. Bulgaria subsequently drew 0-0 at home against Estonia before falling 3-0 away to Iceland on 3 October.

Two Bulgarian players are suspended for this trip: Dimitar Velkovski and Lukas Petkov. While Bulgaria have created 1.12 expected goals per game compared to Luxembourg's 0.68, their solitary away fixture in this campaign ended in a 3-0 loss in Iceland.

Our model expects a Luxembourg win

Our forecasting model expects a Luxembourg win. The assessment reflects Luxembourg's 2-1 victory over Bulgaria in September and Bulgaria's winless record across three matches in Group 4, even though Luxembourg must replace the missing contributions of Barreiro and Sinani.