Allsvenskan Matchweek 22 Review: Vasteras Stun Malmo

Allsvenskan Matchweek 22 brought major upsets at both ends of the table, headlined by Vasteras SK FK shutting out Malmo FF in a 2-0 victory. Across the eight fixtures, our forecasting model had an uneven round, finding consistent success on broader outcome calls while being caught out by several unexpected defeats for heavy favourites.

How our forecasts did

The exact scoreline calls struggled most, with only one of the eight landing across the round. The half-time and full-time projections also had a difficult weekend, with three of eight calls graded correct. In the match result topic, four of the eight calls landed as surprise home wins derailed several selections, matching the four of eight correct calls for the first team to score. Both teams to score fared better with five of eight calls landing, which was equalled by the total goals calls where five of eight were correct. The win or draw projections proved the most reliable topic of the round, with six of the eight calls graded correct.

Results

IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg extended their positive record in this fixture with a narrow 1-0 away win. The model correctly anticipated an IFK Goteborg win and projected them to score the opening goal, though the call for more than 2.5 total goals missed in a cagey encounter.

Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Malmo FF

Vasteras pulled off the shock of the weekend by keeping Malmo off the scoresheet in a 2-0 win. While the model incorrectly projected an away win for Malmo, it successfully called fewer than 2.5 goals and correctly anticipated at least one side being held scoreless.

Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius

League leaders Sirius arrested a three-match losing streak by grinding out a 2-1 away victory over bottom-placed Orgryte IS. This fixture provided the model's finest set of projections in the round, sweeping all seven calls including the exact scoreline of Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius.

Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Elfsborg

Second-placed Djurgardens suffered a setback as IF Elfsborg departed with a 2-1 victory. The model missed on the home win and Djurgardens scoring first, but its low-confidence projection for more than 2.5 goals and both sides scoring proved accurate.

Halmstad 2-1 AIK Stockholm

Halmstad produced a stunning performance to take down AIK Stockholm 2-1. Our projections had firmly favoured an away victory and expected a low-scoring match with at least one clean sheet, missing across the board on the match outcome.

Kalmar FF 0-5 BK Hacken

BK Hacken overwhelmed Kalmar FF in a lopsided 5-0 win that deepened the hosts' winless streak. The model projected a BK Hacken win, backed more than 2.5 goals, and foresaw at least one team failing to score.

Degerfors IF 0-1 Hammarby FF

Hammarby maintained their position near the summit with a disciplined 1-0 away win over struggling Degerfors. The model landed its firm call on an away victory and Hammarby scoring first, though it overestimated the goal tally by calling for more than 2.5 goals.

Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais

Gais defied several squad absences to produce a resounding 3-0 away win. The model missed the match result after expecting a home win, but it correctly anticipated over 2.5 goals and a clear winner either way.

What we got wrong

The round's most significant forecasting failure came at Halmstad, where the model placed medium confidence in an AIK Stockholm win and fewer than 2.5 goals. Halmstad entered the match with only two home wins all season and had failed to score in nine of their previous twenty-one matches. That record pointed toward a comfortable assignment for the visitors, but Halmstad found two goals and completely inverted the projected script.

The model was also caught out by the resilience of visiting underdogs. In Mjallby, the model backed the home side because Gais were missing suspended defender Agren, injured centre-back Thorkelsson, and top scorer Salter. Despite lacking those core contributors, Gais dominated from the outset and led by the break. Similarly, Malmo's unblemished scoring record in away fixtures this season led the model to trust their pedigree against a patched-up Vasteras defence, only for the home side to record another clean sheet and take maximum points.

Matchweek 22 allowed Sirius to steady their lead at the top of the Allsvenskan, while defeats for Malmo and Djurgardens opened up the race for the remaining European places.

Allsvenskan Matchweek 22 Preview: Sirius Look to Rebound

Allsvenskan Matchweek 22 arrives across the weekend of 19 and 20 September 2026, featuring eight fixtures highlighted by a testing road trip for the league leaders. With Sirius wobbling at the summit after three consecutive defeats, the pressure intensifies across both ends of the standings as the autumn stretch begins.

The match of the round: Orgryte IS vs Sirius

The most consequential match of the round takes place on Saturday afternoon, where bottom-dwelling Orgryte IS host league leaders Sirius. On paper, top against bottom should be a foregone conclusion, but the form book introduces real tension. Sirius remain at the summit on merit over the full season, yet three straight defeats have stalled their momentum and allowed the chasing pack to close the distance.

Orgryte IS, meanwhile, are desperate for points to escape the basement. The hosts have established themselves as stubborn opponents on their own patch, recording six draws in ten home fixtures. However, an active six-match winless run underlines a team finding it difficult to turn resilience into victories while struggling to score consistently.

Our forecasting model retains firm belief in the leaders, issuing a high-confidence projection for a Sirius win. Orgryte's inability to keep clean sheets should provide the opening Sirius require to arrest their slump, though it is far from an effortless assignment against a desperate host.

Saturday

Action begins with two simultaneous afternoon kickoffs before the leaders take the field. At IF Brommapojkarna, the hosts welcome IFK Goteborg looking to extend a fine run of form on their own ground, having won three consecutive home matches. However, history strongly favours the visitors, who have claimed victory in six of their nine previous meetings and won two of their last three visits. Our model cautiously favours an IFK Goteborg win in an open contest where both teams are projected to get on the scoresheet.

At the same time, Vasteras SK FK square off against Malmo FF. Vasteras must reconfigure a depleted backline missing three regular starters, including centre-back Magnusson. Despite that disruption, the hosts have conceded just once in their last five home games. Malmo arrive with injury issues of their own, though having scored in every single away fixture this campaign, their attacking pedigree gives them the edge. Our model leans toward a narrow Malmo FF victory in a tight, low-scoring affair.