Clausura Matchweek 11 delivered a round of upsets across the Liga Profesional Argentina, headlined by league leaders Instituto Cordoba running riot in a 4-1 victory over Independiente. Across the round's fifteen fixtures, our forecasting model endured a mixed set of outcomes, struggling on outright winners while finding solid footing in broader outcomes and opening-goal projections.
How our forecasts did
The round proved difficult for narrow calls. Exact scoreline projections fared worst, with only one of the fifteen calls landing. Match result calls also faced heavy resistance, as just six of the fifteen forecasts proved accurate, matched by six of fifteen half-time and full-time projections. Both teams to score and total goals each saw seven of fifteen calls land, with higher scoring rates across several fixtures undermining low-scoring expectations.
By contrast, wider protection yielded the best returns. Twelve of the fifteen win or draw calls were correct, providing reliable coverage across drawn matches. The first team to score projection also performed solidly, landing ten of fifteen calls across the weekend.
Results
Independiente 1-4 Instituto Cordoba The round opened with a shock as league leaders Instituto put four goals past an Independiente defence that had conceded five at home all phase. Our model misfired entirely here, expecting an Independiente win and under 2.5 goals.
Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe Boca Juniors extended their unbeaten sequence with an authoritative display. Our call for a home win and a Boca first goal landed cleanly, though the three-goal margin broke our projection of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. Independiente Rivadavia dropped home points for the first time this Clausura in a tight stalemate. Our win or draw call, both teams to score, and under 2.5 goals all landed, even though the projected home victory fell short.
Defensa y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo Defensa y Justicia continued their fine home sequence by sweeping aside a blunt San Lorenzo attack. The home win, clean sheet, and first goal call all came through, though the scoring went past the projected 2.5-goal ceiling.
Atletico Tucuman 2-3 Barracas Central Barracas Central upset expectations with three goals on the road to snap a seven-match winless run. Our calls for a home win and under 2.5 goals missed, though Atletico Tucuman did score first as projected.
Newells Old Boys 0-0 Lanus A defensive contest finished goalless, matching our projection for fewer than 2.5 goals, at least one clean sheet, and level terms at both intervals, even if the outright Lanus forecast went unfulfilled.
Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi Huracan maintained their defensive record with a controlled single-goal win over travel-weary Aldosivi. This was our cleanest match of the round: home win, under 2.5 goals, clean sheet, and the exact 1-0 scoreline all landed.
Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano edged the derby courtesy of a solitary strike. While our outright home win missed, our win or draw call covering either winner landed, alongside under 2.5 goals and a clean sheet.
Argentinos Juniors 2-1 Tigre Argentinos Juniors held their ground at the summit of Group B with a narrow victory over Tigre. Our projection for an Argentinos win and opening goal landed, though Tigre's reply pushed the game over 2.5 goals.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1-2 Racing Club Racing Club secured a hard-fought away result, validating our projection for an away win and opening goal, though the three total goals contradicted our firm call for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Central Cordoba de Santiago Riestra settled for another shared result. Our win or draw forecast and under 2.5 goals call were accurate, but the outright home win failed to materialize as both sides found the net.
Estudiantes L.P. 3-0 Gimnasia M. Estudiantes L.P. delivered an emphatic shutout victory. The home win, first goal, and clean sheet calls landed comfortably, though the late third goal pushed the total over the projected 2.5 mark.
Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Platense Platense disrupted Velez Sarsfield's home sequence with an attacking display to earn a point. Our firm call for fewer than 2.5 goals missed by a wide margin, though our win or draw cover held.
Banfield 1-1 Rosario Central Banfield halted their scoring drought with an early push against Rosario Central's defensive back line. Our projection for Rosario Central to win or draw landed, as did under 2.5 goals, though the away win eluded us.
Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River Plate River Plate were held away from home despite controlling possession and territory. The projected away victory fell through, but our win or draw call and under 2.5 goals call both landed.
What we got wrong
The two biggest failures of the round came in Avellaneda and Tucuman, where our model placed too much weight on defensive trends. At Independiente, the projection anticipated a tight meeting between the Clausura's two stingiest defensive units, relying on the visitors having scored more than once away only once in their previous five trips. Instead, Instituto Cordoba produced four goals to deliver a complete wipeout of our fixture forecast.
Similarly, Atletico Tucuman's meeting with Barracas Central turned into a five-goal shootout. The projection leaned on Barracas having scored only twice in their previous five away matches and entering winless in seven. The visiting attack defied that prolonged slump entirely, breaching the hosts three times and wrecking both our match result and total goals forecasts.
Matchweek 11 demonstrated that defensive numbers early in the Clausura can rapidly dissolve when frontrunners find rhythm away from home. While Instituto consolidated their position at the top and Boca Juniors reinforced their home standing, dropped points for River Plate and Velez Sarsfield have compressed the middle of the table ahead of the upcoming fixtures.
