Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: Hosts Unbeaten at Home
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Defensa y Justicia face San Lorenzo in Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires. The hosts enter the contest unbeaten on home soil this Clausura, collecting four wins and a draw from five matches.
San Lorenzo have scored just once on the road
San Lorenzo sit 10th in Clausura Group A with 11 points from 10 games, having scored four goals and conceded eight across the campaign. Their away return has yielded zero wins, two draws, and three defeats, with only one goal scored and four conceded across five outings. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, San Lorenzo have averaged 0.54 expected goals created and 1.22 allowed per match. Top scorer Rodrigo Auzmendi leads the squad with six goals in all competitions, but the side arrives following a 2-0 home defeat against Boca Juniors on 20 September 2026 and a 1-1 draw at Independiente on 13 September 2026.
Defensa y Justicia enter third after 5-2 head-to-head win
Defensa y Justicia occupy third place in Clausura Group A with 18 points from 10 matches, having scored 13 goals and conceded 11. At Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, they have collected 13 points from a possible 15, scoring eight goals and allowing three. Their attacking output is supported by an average of 1.24 expected goals created against 1.06 conceded across their last five matches with chance data. David Barbona stands as their leading scorer this season with four goals in all competitions. The side played to a 2-2 draw at Central Cordoba de Santiago on 18 September 2026 after defeating Gimnasia M. 2-0 at home on 11 September 2026. In their previous head-to-head meeting on 16 March 2026, Defensa y Justicia earned a 5-2 victory over San Lorenzo, which followed scoreless draws on 22 September 2024 and 8 May 2023.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Defensa y Justicia win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Defensa y Justicia win. The home side's undefeated record of four wins and one draw at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello pairs with San Lorenzo's winless away record in five league outings. While San Lorenzo have conceded only eight goals in 10 matches to keep scorelines tight, their average of 0.54 expected goals created per game gives the home team the statistical edge.
