MVV vs Helmond Sport: Helmond Winless on the Road
Published
MVV host Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie action on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at De Geusselt in Maastricht, with the visitors yet to collect a point outside their home ground this season.
Helmond Sport arrive with three consecutive away defeats
Helmond Sport have endured a difficult campaign on their travels, losing all three away fixtures in the Eerste Divisie. They fell 3-2 at Jong Ajax on 28 August and most recently suffered a 2-1 defeat at Den Bosch on 18 September. Across those three road games, Helmond Sport have scored four goals while conceding seven.
Their overall league position reflects that travel record, placing them 14th in the table with eight points from seven matches. Mauro Lenaerts leads their attack with three goals in all competitions, but the side has struggled defensively on the road, allowing an average of 1.74 expected goals across their last five matches with data while generating 1.23 expected goals at the other end.
MVV balance top-six standing against ten conceded in two games
MVV enter the match sixth in the standings with 13 points from seven games, supported by a home return of two wins, one draw, and one defeat from four fixtures. Despite their upper-table position, defensive concessions have surfaced sharply over the past fortnight. MVV suffered a 4-0 home defeat to Almere City FC on 11 September, followed by a 6-1 away loss against Waalwijk on 18 September.
Olivier Dumont scored MVV's sole goal against Waalwijk, taking his tally to four goals this season in all competitions. Underlying metrics suggest MVV create solid scoring opportunities, generating 1.34 expected goals per game while allowing 0.76 over their last five matches with chance data. In previous meetings between these clubs, MVV held Helmond Sport to a 0-0 draw on 10 April 2026 and won 4-2 in Helmond on 5 December 2025.
Our model expects a MVV win
Our model expects an MVV win, assigning medium confidence to the home side. That projection aligns with Helmond Sport's run of three away defeats and their high volume of expected goals conceded away from home, though MVV must also stabilise their own back line after shipping ten goals across their last two outings.
