Helmond Sport vs Heracles: Unbeaten Hosts Face Leaders

Helmond SportHEL

Tarik Essakkati 13'
Sem Dekkers 54'
Sent off:Tarik Essakkati 71'

Eerste Divisie

2–2

Full Time

HT 1–2

GS Staalwerken Stadion

Helmond

HeraclesHER

Maurice Wrusch 6'
Manny Rodriguez Baldera 44'
Sent off:David Vicente 8'

AI ForecastsGraded

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Heracles arrive as the Eerste Divisie leaders with the division's deadliest attack, averaging over three goals per game, while Helmond Sport have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. The home side are unbeaten at the GS Staalwerken Stadion but their defensive frailties have been punished repeatedly, and they lost all three previous meetings with tonight's opponents. Heracles' 4-2-3-1 has carved teams open away from home, scoring thirteen times in four road trips, and with no key absences on either side, another open, high-scoring contest is likely.

Match ResultAway Win67%

Heracles top the table with seven wins from their last ten games and the highest attacking output in the division, while Helmond are on a two-game losing streak and have never beaten this opponent in three attempts.

Win or DrawAway or Draw86%

Heracles have lost only three of their last ten matches and face a Helmond side that has won just three times all campaign, making an away win or draw heavily favoured.

Total Goals3 or more goals66%

With a league baseline of sixty-one percent of matches going over two-and-a-half goals and both sides regularly producing high-scoring affairs, this fixture has all the ingredients for at least three goals.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Helmond Sport vs Heracles: Unbeaten Hosts Face Leaders

Published Fri 2 Oct

Helmond Sport face league leaders Heracles in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 2 October 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond, where the hosts have yet to lose this season.

Helmond Sport protect an unbeaten home run

Helmond Sport enter Matchweek 9 in 14th place with eight points from eight games, but their form is divided sharply by venue. Away from home they suffered consecutive defeats, losing 2-1 at Den Bosch on 18 September and 2-0 at MVV on 26 September. At GS Staalwerken Stadion, however, they have taken two wins and two draws from four matches, scoring nine goals and conceding five. Recent home outings delivered a 4-2 win against VVV Venlo on 4 September and a 3-1 victory over Jong PSV U21 on 11 September, with top scorer Mauro Lenaerts reaching three goals across all competitions. Across their last five matches with chance data, Helmond Sport generated 1.23 expected goals per game while conceding 1.74.

Heracles bring 26 league goals to Helmond

Heracles sit top of the Eerste Divisie table with 21 points and a goal difference of +16 after eight games. Their attack has produced 26 goals, underpinned by an average of 2.57 expected goals created across their last five matches with data while allowing only 1.34. Tristan van Gilst leads the team with six goals in all competitions. Although they stumbled in a 1-0 away loss at Almere City FC on 18 September, Heracles responded on 26 September with a 2-0 home victory over Vitesse. On their travels, the leaders have won three of four matches, outscoring opponents 13-6 and collecting nine points away from home.

Our model firmly expects a Heracles win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Heracles win. Helmond Sport have proven stubborn on their own ground with nine goals scored in four matches without defeat, but Heracles operate with a distinct advantage in chance creation. Averaging more than 2.5 expected goals a game and scoring 26 times in eight rounds, the table leaders possess the finishing output to break Helmond Sport's home resilience.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	19	25
17	Helmond Sport	10	-3	9

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	19	25
17	Helmond Sport	10	-3	9

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