FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap

FC Eindhoven face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie Matchweek 9 on Saturday, 3 October 2026 at the Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven, with both teams conceding over two expected goals per match.

Over two expected goals allowed per match

FC Eindhoven sit 13th in the table with 10 points from eight games, having scored 13 and conceded 17. Across their last four matches with chance data, they have generated 0.98 expected goals while allowing 2.05 per game. De Graafschap occupy 18th place with seven points from eight fixtures and a minus-11 goal difference. Over their past five matches, they have allowed an average of 2.07 expected goals per game while producing 1.21.

Julian Kania leads the visitors' attack

Julian Kania has scored four goals across all competitions this season for De Graafschap, while Kevin Van Veen leads FC Eindhoven with two. De Graafschap arrive following a 1-0 home victory over Den Bosch on 27 September 2026, which followed a 2-1 defeat against NAC Breda on 20 September. FC Eindhoven lost their most recent fixture 4-2 away to NAC Breda on 26 September 2026, though they won their previous two matches at the Jan Louwers Stadion: 3-1 against Emmen on 18 September and 2-1 against Dordrecht on 11 September.

De Graafschap hold recent head-to-head edge

Recent meetings between these teams favor the visitors. De Graafschap have won three of the past five encounters, securing a 2-0 win on 30 November 2025, a 2-0 victory on 6 September 2024, and a 1-0 away result on 19 January 2024. FC Eindhoven's lone win during this sequence was a 1-0 home triumph on 11 April 2025, while the clubs drew 2-2 in their most recent meeting on 3 April 2026.

Our model leans towards a De Graafschap win

Our model leans narrowly towards a De Graafschap win. While FC Eindhoven have won two of their four home matches in the league, De Graafschap generate higher expected goal numbers and have taken three victories from the last five head-to-head fixtures.