NAC Breda vs MVV: Visitors Concede 10 in Two Away Matches
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NAC Breda face MVV in Eerste Divisie action on Friday, 9 October 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda, with the visitors arriving after conceding ten goals across their last two away fixtures.
MVV concede ten goals across two away fixtures
MVV sit fifth in the Eerste Divisie with 16 points from nine games, but their defensive record away from home has fractured in recent weeks. Across four league away fixtures, MVV have conceded 13 goals, balanced by two wins and two defeats. Their last two trips resulted in heavy losses: a 6-1 defeat away at Waalwijk on 18 September and a 4-1 loss away at TOP Oss on 3 October. Toni Vinogradac scored MVV's lone goal against TOP Oss, while top scorer Olivier Dumont leads the club with five goals in all competitions. Although MVV hold a negative goal difference of minus six, their chance metrics show an average of 1.34 expected goals created and 0.76 allowed across their last five matches with recorded data.
NAC Breda take an unbeaten three-match run into Breda
NAC Breda sit ninth in the table on 14 points, holding an even goal difference with 19 scored and 19 conceded through nine matches. They enter Friday's game undefeated in their last three league outings, following a 2-1 win at De Graafschap on 20 September, a 4-2 home victory against FC Eindhoven on 26 September, and a 2-2 draw away at Vitesse on 3 October. In that draw at Vitesse, Kamal Sowah scored and supplied an assist for Charles-Andreas Brym. Top scorer Paul Gladon has four goals in all competitions this season, and the team averages 2.05 expected goals created per game over their last five matches with data, against 1.70 allowed. At Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have two wins and two losses from four games, scoring nine times and conceding nine.
Our model firmly expects a NAC Breda win
Our forecasting model firmly expects a NAC Breda win. The call reflects MVV's defensive concessions on the road, where they have allowed ten goals in their last two outings, set against NAC Breda's attacking volume of 2.05 expected goals created per match over their last five games.
