Heracles vs Waalwijk: Perfect Four from Four at Home
Published
League leaders Heracles face Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie on Friday, 9 October 2026, at Asito Stadium in Almelo. Heracles enter the fixture with a flawless home record, having won all four of their league matches on home soil this season.
Heracles have won all four home matches
Heracles sit top of the table with 22 points from nine games, scoring 28 goals and conceding 12. At Asito Stadium, they have collected 12 points from four matches with 13 goals scored and four conceded. Their home run includes a 5-0 win over De Graafschap on 4 September, a 3-2 victory against Jong AZ on 11 September, and a 2-0 win over Vitesse on 26 September. Away from home, results have been mixed, including a 1-0 defeat at Almere City FC on 18 September and a 2-2 draw at Helmond Sport on 2 October. Tristan van Gilst leads their attack with six goals in all competitions, supported by an underlying attack creating 2.57 expected goals per game over their last five matches while allowing 1.34. The only confirmed absence for the league leaders is injured goalkeeper Fabian de Keijzer.
Waalwijk average one goal per game away
Waalwijk occupy seventh place in the division with 14 points and a goal difference of plus seven from nine fixtures. On their travels, they have recorded one win, two draws, and one loss in four outings, scoring four goals and conceding four. Their most recent trip ended in a 2-0 defeat at Roda on 26 September, following a 2-0 win at Jong Ajax on 11 September. Jesse van de Haar is the club's top scorer this season with three goals in all competitions, having struck in their 1-1 home draw against Emmen on 3 October. Waalwijk's last five matches show an average of 1.28 expected goals created and 1.01 allowed per match. The sides drew their last two encounters, finishing 0-0 on 6 April 2025 and 2-2 on 23 November 2024.
Our model firmly expects a Heracles win
Our model firmly expects a Heracles win in Friday's fixture. The call aligns with the hosts' four straight home victories and an offensive output producing 2.57 expected goals per game. Waalwijk's lower volume of 1.28 expected goals created per game and a return of just four goals from four away trips point to a challenging assignment in Almelo.
