Matchweek 10 in the Dutch Eerste Divisie delivered a decisive slate of fixtures, headlined by league leaders Heracles putting three past Waalwijk without reply. Across the ten matches, our forecasting model recorded a strong showing in match results by getting eight of the ten calls right, though projections for both teams to score encountered severe difficulties against a run of clean sheets.
How our forecasts did
The both teams to score category struggled severely this round, with only three of the ten calls landing as multiple sides failed to find the net. In contrast, the win or draw projections were flawless, hitting ten out of ten. Match result forecasts performed strongly, with eight of the ten calls finishing as projected. Opening goal calls also proved dependable, correctly forecasting the first team to score in seven of the ten fixtures. Total goals finished with six correct out of ten calls, while half-time and full-time calls also returned six correct out of ten. Finally, the exact scoreline forecasts recorded one correct call from ten, accurately pinpointing De Graafschap's 2-1 win over Jong Utrecht.
Results
Almere City FC 3-0 FC Eindhoven: Almere City demonstrated their strong defensive record by shutting out Eindhoven, delivering on our high-confidence home win call and the projection for more than 2.5 goals.
De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht: De Graafschap edged this meeting near the bottom of the table, confirming our medium-confidence call for a home win and landing our exact scoreline forecast at 2-1.
Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen: Emmen proved their quality near the top of the table by comfortably beating Dordrecht, delivering on our call for an away win and over 2.5 goals.
FC Volendam 2-0 Vitesse: FC Volendam continued their run of home victories with a shutout against Vitesse, fulfilling our projection of a home win, though our call for both teams to score missed.
Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk: Division leaders Heracles extended their high-scoring home form by putting three past Waalwijk, validating our firm call for a home win and more than 2.5 goals.
Jong Ajax 0-3 VVV Venlo: VVV Venlo punished Jong Ajax's leaky defence to secure all three points, landing our away win call and our forecast of more than 2.5 goals.
Jong AZ 0-1 Den Bosch: Den Bosch earned their first away win of the campaign with a disciplined shutout, overturning our call for a Jong AZ home win and our projection of more than 2.5 goals.
NAC Breda 1-0 MVV: NAC Breda edged out MVV in a tight contest, landing our high-confidence projection of a home win while missing on our call for over 2.5 goals.
TOP Oss 3-1 Helmond Sport: TOP Oss took advantage of Helmond Sport's away struggles to collect the points, landing our calls for a home win, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.
Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21: Roda were held at home by Jong PSV, falling short of our call for a home win as well as our projection of more than 2.5 goals.
What we got wrong
The clearest misread of the round occurred when Jong AZ hosted Den Bosch. The model projected a Jong AZ win alongside over 2.5 goals, leaning on the hosts scoring 22 goals in their first nine matches and Den Bosch having managed only three away goals all season. Instead, Den Bosch produced an unexpected defensive effort, keeping Jong AZ off the scoresheet to take a 1-0 victory.
The model also misjudged the scoring rate when Roda hosted Jong PSV. Projections expected a Roda victory against a young away team that had conceded nearly three goals per match away from home. Instead, Roda could only manage a 1-1 draw, which foiled both our match result call and our forecast for over 2.5 goals. Across the wider round, calls for both teams to score suffered heavily as five clubs were shut out.
The round keeps Heracles clear at the top of the Eerste Divisie and strengthens the positions of Emmen and VVV Venlo, while Den Bosch claim an unexpected away win to lift their campaign.
