Dordrecht vs Emmen

Dordrecht host Emmen in the Eerste Divisie on Friday, 9 October 2026, at M-Scores Stadion in Dordrecht, where the home side must find a way to contain an attack averaging 2.30 expected goals per match.

Dordrecht have conceded 24 goals in nine matches

Dordrecht sit 18th in the table with eight points from nine games, weighed down by a league-high 24 goals conceded and a -11 goal difference. Over their last five outings with chance data, Dordrecht have yielded an average of 2.64 expected goals while generating 1.16 at the other end. That defensive fragility was on display in a 6-3 home defeat against Jong AZ on 5 September and a 3-0 loss away at TOP Oss on 18 September. Although they secured a 3-2 home victory against Almere City FC on 25 September and drew 1-1 at Den Bosch on 3 October, their home record stands balanced at two wins and two defeats with eight goals scored and 10 conceded. Martin Vetkal leads Dordrecht's scoring with three goals across all competitions.

Freddy Quispel has six goals for fourth-placed Emmen

Emmen enter the contest fourth in the standings with 16 points from nine fixtures, scoring 19 goals and conceding 18. Their forward line is paced by Freddy Quispel, who has found the net six times in all competitions. Over their past four matches with chance data, Emmen have created 2.30 expected goals per game while allowing 1.54. Following a 3-1 away loss at FC Eindhoven on 18 September, Emmen defeated TOP Oss 1-0 on 26 September and drew 1-1 at Waalwijk on 3 October. On the road in league play, Emmen have one win, one draw, and two defeats from four games, scoring eight and conceding 12.

Dordrecht have won three of the last four meetings

Recent head-to-head fixtures have leaned Dordrecht's way. Dordrecht defeated Emmen 1-0 in their most recent meeting on 13 February 2026, following a 2-0 Emmen victory on 19 September 2025. Prior to that, Dordrecht recorded a 3-0 home win on 28 February 2025 and a 2-1 away victory on 9 August 2024. Across the last five clashes between the sides, Dordrecht have taken three victories to Emmen's two.

Our model leans narrowly towards an Emmen win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards an Emmen win. Emmen's chance creation rate of 2.30 expected goals per game aligns directly against a Dordrecht back line that has allowed 2.64 expected goals per game and conceded 24 times already this season. Dordrecht's home record of two wins from four and their success in recent meetings with Emmen keep the forecast close.