Southampton vs Portsmouth

Southampton host Portsmouth in the Championship on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire, with the home side defending a record of four wins from four matches on their own ground.

Southampton have won all four league games at home

The hosts sit 14th in the Championship table with 10 points from eight matches, having scored 19 goals and conceded 10. That scoring return is built primarily on their performances at St. Mary's Stadium, where they have won all four league fixtures with 15 goals scored and four conceded. In their last two outings at home, Southampton defeated Bristol City 4-1 on 12 September 2026 and Swansea 3-1 on 8 September 2026. However, their most recent match ended in a 2-1 away loss at Wrexham on 19 September 2026. Striker Cyle Larin leads their scoring with seven goals in all competitions. In team news, goalkeeper Daniel Peretz is ruled out with an injury, while Caspar Jander remains doubtful. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, Southampton have generated 1.19 expected goals per game while allowing 1.55.

Portsmouth arrive with ten players carrying injuries

Portsmouth sit 19th in the division with eight points from seven games and a goal difference of -1. The visitors travel with significant personnel issues. Josh Murphy, Luke Brooke-Smith, and Márk Kosznovszky are all confirmed out injured, while Connor Ogilvie, Conor Shaughnessy, Franco Umeh-Chibueze, Keshi Anderson, Marezi, Ryan Kavuma-McQueen, and Thomas Waddingham are listed as doubtful. Top scorer Marko Milovanović has two goals across all competitions this season. Portsmouth drew 2-2 at home against Blackburn on 19 September 2026 and drew 0-0 at Charlton on 12 September 2026, giving them one win, one draw, and one defeat on the road in the league. Across their last five matches, Portsmouth have conceded an average of just 0.74 expected goals while creating 1.20.

Our model expects a Southampton win

Our model expects a Southampton win, driven largely by their home return of four straight victories and 15 goals scored at St. Mary's Stadium. Portsmouth's lengthy injury list leaves up to ten players unavailable or carrying doubts. Recent history between the clubs shows close encounters, including a 1-1 draw at Portsmouth on 25 January 2026 and a 0-0 draw at Southampton on 14 September 2025. Although Portsmouth have restricted opposition chances to 0.74 expected goals per game over their last five matches, Southampton's high scoring rate on home turf underpins our model's stance.