Derby vs Wrexham

Derby face Wrexham in the Championship on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Pride Park, with the home side seeking their first league victory at their home ground this season. Derby enter the match in 22nd place after taking five points from their opening eight fixtures.

Derby winless at Pride Park with seven ruled out

Derby have managed one point from four home matches in the Championship, recording one draw and three defeats while conceding eight goals and scoring three. Across eight league matches, the club has conceded 14 goals, leaving them with a minus-seven goal difference. Over their last five matches with chance data, Derby have generated 0.85 expected goals per match while allowing 1.73.

Injuries have heavily disrupted the home squad. Derby enter Saturday without seven confirmed players: Charlie Taylor, Craig Forsyth, Derry Murkin, Eiran Cashin, Jacob Widell Zetterström, Matthew Clarke, and Patrick Agyemang are all out. Sammie Szmodics leads the side with two goals in all competitions, but Derby have not won since a 2-0 away victory at Portsmouth on 1 September 2026, most recently drawing 1-1 at Burnley on 19 September 2026.

Wrexham lean on Kieffer Moore amid five confirmed absences

Wrexham occupy 14th place in the Championship table with 10 points from eight games. The away record stands at one win, two draws, and one defeat from four fixtures, with four goals scored and seven conceded. The squad recovered from a 6-0 away loss at West Ham on 11 September 2026 by defeating Southampton 2-1 on 19 September 2026.

Striker Kieffer Moore leads Wrexham with three goals across all competitions this season. The squad travels with injuries of their own, as Liberato Cacace, Max Cleworth, Nathan Broadhead, Oliver Rathbone, and Sebastian Revan are confirmed out, while George Thomason remains doubtful. Across their last five matches with available metrics, Wrexham created 0.77 expected goals per game while conceding 1.32.

Head-to-head records favour Wrexham

Wrexham hold the upper hand in recent encounters between the clubs. In their meeting on 4 January 2026, Wrexham earned a 2-1 victory over Derby at Pride Park. That followed a 1-1 draw on 27 September 2025, leaving Derby without a win across their past two meetings.

Our model leans towards a Wrexham win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Wrexham win. Although Wrexham generate only 0.77 expected goals per game and travel without five injured players, Derby have struggled at Pride Park, allowing 1.73 expected goals per game across recent matches and missing seven players through injury.