Norwich vs Southampton: Touré Out as Losses Mount
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Norwich host Southampton in the Championship on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk, having lost each of their last four matches in all competitions.
Touré among six confirmed absences for Norwich
Norwich sit 19th in the Championship table with nine points from nine matches, holding a minus-two goal difference after scoring 17 goals and conceding 19. That defensive vulnerability showed in recent weeks: a 1-2 defeat away at Swansea on 10 October followed high-scoring losses against Bolton (3-4 on 20 September) and Middlesbrough (3-4 on 12 September), as well as a 0-5 League Cup defeat away at Manchester City. Over their last five fixtures with underlying data, Norwich created an average of 0.77 expected goals per game while allowing 1.70.
Injuries have further disrupted the squad. Top scorer Mohamed Touré, who has scored five goals in all competitions this season, is sidelined alongside Kenny McLean, Mirko Topić, Papa Diallo, Ali Ahmed, and Gabriel Forsyth. Defender Lucien Mahovo is also doubtful through injury, leaving the home side without multiple regular starters.
Southampton remain winless on the road
Southampton enter the contest 13th in the standings with 13 points and a positive goal difference of ten, having scored 20 goals and conceded ten across nine matches. They edged Portsmouth 1-0 on 11 October, but their away form has been unproductive. In four away league matches this season, Southampton have recorded two draws and two defeats, scoring four times and conceding six.
Cyle Larin leads Southampton in attack with seven goals in all competitions, though the visitors will be without the suspended Cameron Bragg in midfield. Over their last five outings with data, Southampton generated 1.24 expected goals per game while allowing 1.48. In head-to-head meetings, Southampton won the most recent encounter 1-0 on 18 March 2026, though Norwich earned a 2-1 victory in their previous clash at Carrow Road on 13 December 2025.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Norwich win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Norwich win. Southampton have taken only two points from four away league matches, while Norwich have managed two victories from four home fixtures in the division. Countering that forecast are Norwich's defensive concessions and the absence of Touré, whose five goals represent a significant portion of their attack.
