Matchweek 9 in the Championship brought surprises at both ends of the table, headlined by Burnley securing a 4-0 victory at Watford and second-placed West Ham being held to a 1-1 draw by QPR. Our forecasting model had a mixed weekend across the division, finding success on broad outcomes while coming unstuck on several outright match winner calls.
How our forecasts did
The exact scoreline calls suffered the hardest weekend, with two of the twelve calls landing, though those two were notable exact hits in Swansea's 2-1 win over Norwich and Stoke City's 2-1 win at Bolton. The half-time and full-time calls also found the going difficult, with four of the twelve calls landing.
At the other end of the sheet, the win or draw projections proved the most reliable topic of the round, as ten of the twelve calls landed. The match result calls landed seven of the twelve, while the total goals calls also saw seven of the twelve land. Both the both teams to score projections and the first team to score calls broke even, each finishing with six of the twelve calls landing.
Results
West Ham 1-1 QPR The round opened on Friday night with West Ham held to a draw by QPR. Our model expected a home victory and the opening goal for the hosts, but both firm calls missed, even if West Ham to win or draw and both teams to score landed.
Charlton 1-1 Bristol City Charlton earned a share of the points in an early Saturday kickoff. Our projection favoured an away win that did not materialise, though our call for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match proved correct.
Swansea 2-1 Norwich League leaders Swansea maintained their strong home defensive profile to edge past Norwich, who were without top scorer Mohamed Touré. Our model projected a Swansea win, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and correctly nailed the exact 2-1 scoreline.
West Brom 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham took the points away from home in a tight contest. Our call for a West Brom home win missed, but the call for a winner either way and the call for fewer than 2.5 goals both landed.
Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff Blackburn edged out Cardiff in an encounter with goals at each end. We projected an away win which missed, but our calls for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score were accurate.
Bolton 1-2 Stoke City Stoke extended their unbeaten form with an away victory at Bolton. This was our model's sharpest fixture of the round, correctly forecasting the Stoke win, Stoke to score first, Stoke ahead at the break and winning it, more than 2.5 goals, and the exact 1-2 scoreline.
Derby 1-1 Wrexham Derby and Wrexham could not be separated in a low-scoring draw. Our call for an away win missed, but our projection of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match landed.
Middlesbrough 1-0 Wolves A single goal decided the meeting of two top-four sides as Middlesbrough won at home. We called the home win and Middlesbrough to open the scoring, but our call for more than 2.5 goals missed.
Preston 0-1 Millwall Millwall travelled without Josh Coburn and Casper de Norre but still claimed an away victory. Our calls for a Millwall win and Millwall to score first both landed, though we incorrectly expected more than 2.5 goals.
Sheffield Utd 3-0 Lincoln Sheffield United stopped their recent slide by seeing off Lincoln with three unanswered goals. Our call for a home win landed alongside our half-time and full-time projection, though the third goal scuppered our call for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Watford 0-4 Burnley Burnley collected their first league win of the season in emphatic fashion at Vicarage Road. Our model projected an away victory, a winner either way, and more than 2.5 goals, all of which landed comfortably.
Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth Southampton preserved their unblemished home record by edging Portsmouth in Sunday's derby without goalkeeper Daniel Peretz. Our calls for a Southampton win, Southampton to win or draw, Southampton to score first, and Southampton ahead at the break and winning it all landed, although the match produced fewer goals than projected.
What we got wrong
The most visible miss came in the opening game on Friday. Our model placed high confidence behind a West Ham win and West Ham scoring the opening goal against QPR, pointing to an attack that had scored 11 goals in five matches and found the net in every fixture. QPR limited those chances, leaving the hosts frustrated with a single point.
The model was also caught out by backing away teams in balanced mid-table fixtures. We projected Cardiff to take points at Blackburn and Wrexham to win at Derby, underestimating the resilience of home sides that had otherwise struggled for defensive clean sheets in previous weeks.
Matchweek 9 tightened the race near the summit of the Championship as Swansea maintained their advantage, while Burnley proved that poor early-season conversion rates can turn quickly with an overwhelming road performance.
