West Brom vs Birmingham: Hosts Unbeaten at Home
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West Brom host Birmingham in the Championship at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich on Saturday 10 October 2026, carrying an unbeaten home record into the fixture. The fifth-placed hosts enter the match on 14 points from eight games, three points ahead of tenth-placed Birmingham.
West Brom unbeaten at The Hawthorns despite low chance volume
West Brom have recorded two wins and two draws from four league games on their home ground, scoring six goals and conceding three. However, over their last five matches with chance data, they have generated an average of 0.68 expected goals per game while allowing 1.01. Their last Championship fixture was a 0-1 defeat away at Wolves on 20 September 2026, which followed a 1-1 home draw against QPR on 12 September 2026 and consecutive 1-0 victories over Derby and Watford.
Jimmy Morgan leads the home side's scoring charts with three goals in all competitions. Defensive options are thinned with Nolan Galves ruled out by injury, while Michael Johnston remains doubtful.
Birmingham create 1.81 expected goals a game
Birmingham arrive with 11 points and a goal difference of +1 from eight fixtures. While West Brom's recent matches have seen low scoring, Birmingham have averaged 1.81 expected goals created and 1.40 allowed across their last five matches with chance data.
Their recent run includes a 2-2 draw at home to Middlesbrough on 19 September 2026 and a 2-1 away win at Derby on 12 September 2026. Away from home in the league, Birmingham have taken two wins, one draw, and one defeat from four games, scoring five goals and conceding four. Phil Neumann is Birmingham's top scorer with two goals in all competitions, while midfielder Marc Leonard is doubtful due to injury.
Two consecutive draws in head-to-head meetings
Recent meetings between the two sides have produced tight scorelines. The sides drew 0-0 on 10 February 2026 following a 1-1 draw on 26 November 2025. Before those level results, West Brom earned a 1-0 win on 3 February 2024, after Birmingham secured a 3-1 victory on 6 October 2023.
Our model leans narrowly towards a West Brom win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a West Brom win. West Brom's record of two wins and two draws at The Hawthorns supports the host side, though the absence of Nolan Galves in defence removes depth. Birmingham's higher chance production of 1.81 expected goals per match and two straight draws between these teams keep the contest balanced.
