Watford vs Burnley

Watford host Burnley in the Championship on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Vicarage Road, with the visitors sitting bottom of the table and still seeking their first away win of the campaign.

Burnley arrive bottom and winless away

Burnley occupy 24th place in the Championship with four points from eight matches, having conceded 17 goals and scored nine. Away from home, they have taken one draw and three defeats from four fixtures, conceding 11 times. Their last five league outings have yielded three 1-1 draws—against Middlesbrough, Wrexham, and Derby on 19 September 2026—alongside defeats against Bristol City and Swansea.

Six Burnley players sidelined or doubtful

The visitors face squad issues across multiple departments. Dastan Satpaev, Hannibal Mejbri, and Jordan Beyer are ruled out through injury. Doubts also linger over Ashley Barnes, Bashir Humphreys, and Josh Cullen. Burnley's leading goalscorer this season, Zian Flemming, has two goals in all competitions, while the team has averaged 0.94 expected goals created and 1.43 allowed across their last five matches with recorded chance metrics.

Watford lean on Vicarage Road form

Watford sit 20th in the standings with eight points from eight fixtures, scoring seven and conceding 10. While they have lost four of their last five matches—most recently a 1-0 defeat at Bristol City on 18 September 2026 and a 2-1 home loss to Stoke City on 12 September 2026—their home record shows two wins, one draw, and one defeat from four games. Top scorer Amin Nabizada has recorded three goals in all competitions. Edoardo Bove, Jeremy Ngakia, and Kwadwo Baah are all rated doubtful through injury. Over their last five matches with chance data, Watford have created 0.77 expected goals per game while allowing 1.82.

Recent meetings favor Burnley

Head-to-head history tilts towards Burnley, who won both meetings between the clubs during the 2024-25 Championship campaign. Burnley recorded a 2-1 victory on 21 December 2024 before earning another 2-1 win at Vicarage Road on 18 April 2025.

Our model leans towards a Burnley win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Burnley win. Despite their standing at the foot of the division and an away record of one point from four matches, Burnley hold the edge in recent meetings and generate 0.94 expected goals per game compared to Watford's 0.77, against a Watford defense that has conceded an average of 1.82 expected goals over their last five matches.