PAOK vs Kalamata: Eight PAOK Players Ruled Out

PAOKPAO

Cherif Ndiaye 44'
Sent off:Antonis Tsiftsis 61'

Super League 1

1–3

Full Time

HT 1–1

Toumba Stadium

Thessaloniki

KalamataKAL

Kenneth Vargas 28' (pen), 56'
Dawid Kurminowski 66'

AI ForecastsGraded

Match of the day · free full analysis

PAOK return to Toumba with two clean home wins from two this season, six goals scored and none conceded, and a side that sits near the top of the table and was among the strongest in the division last year. Kalamata are a newly arrived side with one win in five, a leaky defence that has not kept a clean sheet, and only a goal and a half per game away from home at best. The gulf in starting quality is enormous, and PAOK's chance creation has been consistently better than what Kalamata have allowed themselves to concede. Pavlenka's absence in goal is the main concern for the hosts, but Kalamata have rarely generated the clear-cut chances to exploit it. The most likely story is PAOK taking control early and winning by a couple of goals.

Match ResultHome Win79%

PAOK have won both home games without conceding, finished near the top last season, and field a far more valuable starting XI than a Kalamata side that has lost three of its last five.

Win or DrawHome or Draw93%

PAOK avoiding defeat is very likely given their home form and the gap in quality, while Kalamata's best hope is a low-scoring draw built on a compact block.

Total Goals3 or more goals64%

PAOK average 2.4 goals a game this season and Kalamata concede 1.6, so three or more goals looks the more likely outcome, though PAOK's recent home games have been tighter.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

PAOK vs Kalamata: Eight PAOK Players Ruled Out

Published Sun 11 Oct

PAOK host Kalamata in Super League 1 on Monday, 12 October 2026, at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki, with the home side missing eight injured players despite winning both of their home league fixtures without conceding.

Eight PAOK players out with injury

PAOK sit third in the table with 12 points from five matches and a goal difference of plus-seven, following a 3-1 victory at Panetolikos on 20 September 2026 and a 2-0 home win over Aris Thessalonikis on 13 September 2026. However, eight players are ruled out through injury: Dimitrios Giannoulis, Fedor Chalov, Jirí Pavlenka, Kiril Despodov, Pantelis Hatzidiakos, Soualiho Meité, Taha Abdi Ali, and Tom Louchet. Dimitrios Pelkas, who leads the squad with three goals in all competitions this season, remains available in attack.

Kalamata winless away from home

Kalamata occupy 11th place with four points from five fixtures and a goal difference of minus-two, having scored six and conceded eight. In away league matches, they have recorded zero wins, one draw, and one defeat from two attempts, scoring once and conceding three after drawing 1-1 at Atromitos on 6 September 2026 and losing 2-0 at Panetolikos on 29 August 2026. Top scorer Jovanny Bolívar has two goals this season, but Kalamata travel without four injured players: Panagiotis Panagiotou, Pavlos Varelas, Savvas Mouzakis, and Stavros Angelis.

PAOK create 2.05 expected goals per match

Across their last four matches with chance data, PAOK have averaged 2.05 expected goals created per game and allowed 0.74. Their defensive record at Toumba Stadium in league action stands at two wins from two, with six goals scored and none conceded. Kalamata, who suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Panathinaikos on 20 September 2026, have produced 1.30 expected goals per game while allowing 1.62 across their past five fixtures with chance metrics.

Our model firmly expects a PAOK win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a PAOK win. That expectation is grounded in PAOK's record of two wins from two league matches at Toumba Stadium without conceding, alongside their average of 2.05 expected goals created per match. The primary complication is PAOK's list of eight absentees, though Kalamata travel with four injuries of their own and have yet to win an away league match this season.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	PAOK	6	5	12
10	Kalamata	6	0	7

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