Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

Bosnia & Herzegovina face Sweden in League B Matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League on Friday, 2 October 2026 at Bilino Polje in Zenica. The visitors enter the fixture in first place in Group 4 with six points, holding a two-point margin over the second-placed hosts.

Sweden lead Group 4 with five goals scored

Sweden opened their campaign with consecutive victories, defeating Romania 2-1 on 25 September and Poland 3-1 on 28 September. Viktor Gyökeres leads their scoring with three goals in all competitions this season. However, Sweden have surrendered chances consistently. Over their last five matches with data, they created 1.03 expected goals per game while allowing 1.64. Their recent defensive record also includes conceding five in a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands and three in a 3-0 loss to France at the World Cup.

Bosnia & Herzegovina take four points from two away trips

Bosnia & Herzegovina sit second in Group 4 with four points after traveling for each of their opening two fixtures. They recorded a 0-0 draw in Poland on 25 September before securing a 4-2 win over Romania on 28 September. Ermin Mahmić is the team's top scorer with three goals this season. The home side generate 0.76 expected goals a game while conceding 1.07 across their last five recorded matches, outperforming those numbers in Romania where they scored four times from open play.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Sweden win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Sweden win. Sweden have won both of their group matches and created more expected goals per game (1.03) than Bosnia & Herzegovina (0.76). Yet Sweden have also conceded 1.64 expected goals per game across their last five matches with data, and Bosnia & Herzegovina enter the match unbeaten in the group after scoring four goals in Romania.