Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: Montreal's 10 Away Losses
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Toronto FC meet CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on Saturday 10 October 2026 at BMO Field in Toronto, with the visitors sitting bottom of the Eastern Conference after losing 10 of their 13 away league fixtures this season.
Montreal have lost 10 of 13 away matches
CF Montreal sit 15th in the Eastern Conference standings with 24 points from 27 games. While they recorded a 3-1 home victory over FC Cincinnati on 26 September behind two goals from top scorer Prince-Osei Owusu, their travels have yielded little success. Montreal have won twice, drawn once, and lost 10 times away from home in league action, conceding 36 goals while scoring 15.
Toronto FC sit two places above Montreal in 13th with 29 points from 27 matches. The hosts have dropped three consecutive away matches—losing 3-0 at Orlando City SC on 12 September, 3-1 at St. Louis City on 20 September, and 2-0 at Nashville SC on 27 September—but their home form has been sturdier. Toronto have lost only two of their 14 home fixtures in MLS this campaign, picking up four wins and eight draws at BMO Field.
Toronto FC hold a five-match unbeaten run in this derby
The previous encounter between the two clubs ended in a 0-0 draw on 16 July 2026. That result extended Toronto's unbeaten run against Montreal to five matches. Prior to that scoreless meeting, the sides drew 1-1 on 30 August 2025, following three straight Toronto victories: 6-1 on 17 May 2025, 1-0 on 20 July 2024, and 5-1 on 18 May 2024.
Both sides have conceded heavily in recent weeks. Toronto FC allow an average of 1.99 expected goals per game over their last five outings while generating 1.43. Montreal have allowed 1.87 expected goals per game across the same span while creating 1.16, though Owusu has reached 15 goals in all competitions this season compared to a team-high seven for Toronto's Josh Sargent.
Four injuries hit Montreal as Toronto miss Mihailović and Palacio
Toronto FC enter the contest without two players due to injury: midfielder Djordje Mihailović and Nelson Palacio. Montreal carry four confirmed injury absences into the match, with defenders Bode Hidalgo and Brayan Vera sidelined alongside Daniel Pereira and Josh Nteziryayo.
Our model expects a Toronto FC win
Our model expects a Toronto FC win with medium confidence. Toronto have been beaten only twice in 14 home league games at BMO Field and are unbeaten in five straight meetings with Montreal, while the visitors have lost 10 of their 13 away fixtures in Major League Soccer this year.

