Austin vs Nashville SC

Austin play Nashville SC in Major League Soccer on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Q2 Stadium, with a 29-point gap separating the two sides in the standings.

Nashville SC bring a 29-point gap to Texas

Nashville SC sit first in the Eastern Conference with 60 points from 27 games, scoring 55 goals and conceding only 21 for a plus-34 goal difference. They visit Austin having won two consecutive league matches without conceding, defeating Chicago Fire 3-0 on 20 September 2026 and Toronto FC 2-0 on 27 September 2026. On the road in MLS, Nashville SC have compiled five wins and five draws from 13 games, allowing nine goals in those matches. In chance creation, Nashville SC averaged 1.91 expected goals per game while allowing 1.18 across their last five matches. Top scorer Sam Surridge leads their attack with 16 goals in all competitions this season, though Warren Madrigal remains out through injury.

Austin remain unbeaten in five despite chance deficit

Austin sit 13th in the Western Conference with 31 points from 27 games, carrying a minus-12 goal difference after conceding 47 times. Despite their league position, Austin enter on a five-match unbeaten sequence in MLS, consisting of one win and four draws. Their most recent fixture produced a 3-3 draw at home to San Diego on 27 September 2026, following a 0-0 draw at FC Dallas and a 2-1 away win at Vancouver Whitecaps. Austin have generated 0.93 expected goals per game while conceding 1.66 over their last five matches. Forward Christian Ramirez leads the squad with nine goals this season, while Przemysław Płacheta is out with an injury. At Q2 Stadium, Austin have registered four wins, six draws, and three defeats in 13 league fixtures. The only previous meeting between these clubs ended in a 2-0 Austin victory on 25 August 2024.

Our model expects a Nashville SC win

Our model expects a Nashville SC win, reflecting the visitors' 60 points and plus-34 goal difference compared to Austin's 31 points and minus-12 goal difference. Nashville SC create 1.91 expected goals per match while Austin manage 0.93, providing a consistent underlying edge for the away side. While Austin have avoided defeat across their last five matches and won the only previous head-to-head meeting in 2024, their rate of 1.66 expected goals conceded leaves them exposed against an opponent that has conceded only nine away goals all season.