Major League Soccer Matchweek 28 delivered an attacking weekend across the league, headlined by St. Louis City scoring six in a 6-2 demolition of Los Angeles Galaxy. Our model read the goal tally accurately across the fifteen matches, though its match result projections proved mixed as several home sides failed to turn possession into victories.
How our forecasts did
Our more detailed calls struggled across the slate. Only three of the fifteen exact scoreline projections landed, while five of the fifteen half-time and full-time calls proved accurate, and six of the fifteen first team to score projections were correct. In the match result column, eight of the fifteen calls were correct, with several home draws undermining our projections.
By contrast, the goals forecasts performed strongly. Thirteen of the fifteen total goals calls were correct, and thirteen of the fifteen both teams to score projections hit the mark. The model also saw eleven of the fifteen win or draw forecasts land cleanly, benefiting from an open round of fixtures that produced plenty of scoring at both ends.
Results
Toronto FC opened the slate with a 2-1 win over CF Montreal, landing our match result call, total goals forecast, and exact scoreline projection, though Montreal scored first to deny the opening goal call. Chicago Fire followed with a 2-1 victory against New York City FC, another match where our match result and exact 2-1 scoreline calls landed.
Inter Miami eased past DC United with an emphatic 4-0 home win, delivering on our high-confidence match result and total goals calls, though DC United failed to get on the board to foil our both teams to score forecast. FC Cincinnati went on the road and defeated Atlanta United FC 1-3, upsetting our match result call for the hosts while confirming our total goals and both teams to score projections.
Orlando City SC edged Columbus Crew 3-2 in an entertaining contest, rewarding our match result, total goals, and both teams to score calls. New England Revolution suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Seattle Sounders, running contrary to our projected home win and leaving the Revolution scoreless.
Philadelphia Union continued their sharp run of form by defeating Real Salt Lake 2-1, landing our high-confidence match result call, both teams to score, and exact scoreline forecast. New York Red Bulls found their scoring touch in a 4-1 victory over San Diego, beating the visitors soundly after our model had cautiously projected an away win.
Charlotte held off FC Dallas 3-2 at home, landing our call for a home victory alongside both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals. Nashville SC traveled to Austin and dominated in a 1-4 away victory, confirming our match result call as well as the opening goal projection.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo finished in a 2-2 draw, frustrating our projection of a home victory despite landing both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals call. Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers shared the points in a wild 3-3 draw, missing our call for a Kansas City win while delivering cleanly on both attacking projections.
Colorado Rapids were held to a 1-1 draw by San Jose Earthquakes, missing our home win call and our projection of more than 2.5 goals, though both teams to score landed. Los Angeles FC also settled for a 1-1 draw against Western leaders Vancouver Whitecaps, failing to deliver the home win or the high-scoring total projected by our model.
St. Louis City closed the round in style with an emphatic 6-2 victory over Los Angeles Galaxy, landing our high-confidence match result projection, opening goal call, both teams to score, and total goals forecast in dominant fashion.
What we got wrong
The clearest blind spot for the model came in predicting home dominance in matches that dissolved into draws. In Colorado, Minnesota, and Los Angeles, our model projected home sides to turn their underlying chance creation into outright wins. Instead, Colorado Rapids could only manage a 1-1 draw against San Jose Earthquakes, Minnesota United FC threw away the lead in a 2-2 stalemate against Houston Dynamo, and Los Angeles FC were held to a 1-1 scoreline by Vancouver Whitecaps. In all three instances, the model expected the hosts to control the pace, yet defensive lapses conceded equalisers.
The defeat of New England Revolution was another notable misread. The model trusted New England's record of nine wins in thirteen home fixtures, anticipating their attack would overpower Seattle Sounders. Instead, Seattle kept a clean sheet on the road and scored three unanswered goals, leaving New England empty-handed and busting both our match result and both teams to score forecasts.
What the round changed
Matchweek 28 demonstrated that defensive fragility remains widespread across the league, with only Inter Miami and Seattle Sounders keeping clean sheets. St. Louis City made a statement with their six-goal display against the Galaxy, while Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union continued to look like two of the steadiest sides heading into the closing weeks of the season.
