Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC: Two Orlando Absences

Toronto FCTOR

Lewis Morgan 27'
Theodor Corbeanu 49'
Matheus Pereira 90'

Major League Soccer

3–3

Full Time

HT 1–1

BMO Field

Toronto

Orlando City SC

Martín Ojeda 45+1' (pen)
Antoine Griezmann 77'
Daryl Dike 83'

AI ForecastsGraded

Toronto host Orlando in a clash of two leaky sides, and goals look likely at BMO Field. Toronto have been hard to beat at home, with five wins and eight draws from fifteen, scoring in every home game, but they have not kept a clean sheet in twelve. Orlando bring the more fluent…

Match ResultHome Win43%

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High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Key facts

Toronto FC have scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches
Toronto FC haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 12 matches
Orlando City SC have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches
Martín Ojeda has the most shots on target per match for Orlando City SC this season (1.7)
Maxime Crépeau ranks 2nd in this competition for saves per match this season (4.4)

As they stood before kick-off.

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC: Two Orlando Absences

Published Wed 14 Oct

Toronto FC host Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at BMO Field in Toronto, with the visitors having conceded 47 goals in away league action this season.

Orlando City SC concede heavily on the road

Orlando City SC sit 7th in the Eastern Conference with 37 points from 28 matches, but their defensive record away from home has proved problematic. In 14 road fixtures in this competition, they have recorded three wins, two draws, and nine losses, conceding 47 times while scoring 25. That trend continued in their recent travels, suffering a 2-4 defeat against Philadelphia Union on 26 September 2026 and another 2-4 loss against New England Revolution on 19 September 2026.

Although Orlando edged Columbus Crew 3-2 on 10 October 2026 and defeated Toronto FC 3-0 on 12 September 2026, they have conceded an average of 2.26 expected goals across their last five matches while creating 1.89. In attack, top scorer Martín Ojeda leads the line with 13 goals across all competitions, but the squad travels north without Braian Ojeda and Tyrese Spicer, who are both sidelined through injury.

Toronto FC hold firm at BMO Field

Toronto FC occupy 11th place in the Eastern Conference with 32 points from 28 games, carrying a goal difference of -11 with 41 goals scored and 52 conceded. Their record at BMO Field offers stability: five wins, eight draws, and two defeats from 15 home matches in the competition, scoring 31 and conceding 29. They enter this fixture following a 2-1 home victory over CF Montreal on 10 October 2026.

Away fixtures have been more difficult for Toronto, who fell 0-2 against Nashville SC on 27 September 2026 and 1-3 against St. Louis City on 20 September 2026. Across their last five matches with chance data, Toronto have generated 1.51 expected goals per game while allowing 1.92. Top scorer Josh Sargent has recorded seven goals in all competitions, though the midfield must manage without Nelson Palacio due to injury.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Toronto FC win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Toronto FC win. That low-confidence call reflects Orlando City SC's nine away defeats and 47 goals allowed on the road, set against Toronto FC's durability at BMO Field, where they have lost only twice in 15 league matches. However, Orlando's earlier 3-0 win over Toronto on 12 September 2026 and Martín Ojeda's 13-goal output show the visitors retain threat going forward.

Key facts

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