Major League Soccer Matchweek 29 takes place across 14 and 15 October 2026, delivering 15 fixtures headlined by a direct race for the top seed in the Western Conference. With the postseason bracket coming into focus, Eastern Conference leaders Nashville SC look to consolidate their dominance while the Western Conference summit sees first place host second place. For any late changes, the model publishes refreshed forecasts on each match page the day before kickoff.
The match of the round: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
The marquee fixture of the round takes place in the Western Conference, where second-placed St. Louis City host league-leading Vancouver Whitecaps with just a single point separating them. Vancouver top the table on 51 points with a conference-leading plus-31 goal difference, but they arrive having taken two points from their last three matches, including a 1-1 draw away at Los Angeles FC and a 3-3 draw against DC United.
St. Louis City, sitting on 50 points, bring explosive home scoring form into this meeting after dismantling Los Angeles Galaxy 6-2 on 11 October. The hosts are without Brendan McSorley, Célio Pompeu and Palmer Ault through injury, while Vancouver travel without Belal Halbouni, Jeevan Badwal and Kenji Cabrera. Vancouver rely heavily on Brian White, who has 17 goals this season, but our model gives the slight edge to the home side. The model projects a St. Louis City win with low confidence, while anticipating an open contest featuring more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Match-by-match
Inter Miami vs New York City FC Inter Miami sit second in the Eastern Conference on 49 points and have scored 68 goals in 28 matches, led by Lionel Messi's 22 strikes this season. New York City FC sit tenth, have won just once in their past ten matches, and travel without injured trio Arnau Farnós, Drew Baiera and Kai Trewin. Miami ended a recent cold patch with a 4-0 victory over DC United, and our model issues a firm projection for an Inter Miami win alongside more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Columbus Crew vs Charlotte Columbus Crew sit 13th in the East despite productive attacking output, having scored eight goals across their last five games. They face a fifth-placed Charlotte side that has lost only once in ten matches and defeated FC Dallas 3-2 last weekend behind Pep Biel's 11-goal campaign. Columbus are missing Rudy Camacho and Wessam Abou Ali, but our model leans with medium confidence towards a Columbus Crew win.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution FC Cincinnati ended a six-match winless slide by defeating Atlanta United FC 3-1, though they enter this meeting without creative focal point Evander and defender Miles Robinson. Fourth-placed New England Revolution travel after consecutive 3-0 defeats against Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders, with Carles Gil carrying their attack while Alhassan Yusuf, Jack Harrison and Leonardo Campana remain sidelined. Our model projects a FC Cincinnati win, alongside a high-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Toronto FC have avoided defeat in 13 of 15 home fixtures, recently beating CF Montreal 2-1, but have failed to keep a clean sheet in twelve straight outings. Orlando City SC enter after a 3-2 victory over Columbus Crew, yet they have struggled away from home, conceding four goals in recent trips to Philadelphia and New England. Our model projects a Toronto FC win with low confidence, accompanied by a high-confidence expectation of more than 2.5 goals in the match.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC CF Montreal sit bottom of the Eastern Conference with 24 points and have conceded 56 goals across 28 fixtures, failing to keep a clean sheet in 15 matches. Atlanta United FC sit 14th on 27 points and must manage the suspension of Tomás Jacob. Prince-Osei Owusu has provided 15 goals for Montreal, and our model offers a cautious projection for a CF Montreal win in an encounter projected to produce over 2.5 goals.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls DC United have gone five matches without a win, failing to score in back-to-back league outings including a 4-0 loss to Inter Miami. New York Red Bulls responded to a home shutout by defeating San Diego 4-1 on 10 October, aided by top scorer Julian Hall. Despite recent attacking stalls, our model leans towards a DC United win with medium confidence.
FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders Third-placed FC Dallas have lost just twice in 13 home matches, propelled by Petar Musa's 19 goals across all competitions. Seattle Sounders arrive on a nine-match unbeaten sequence after a 3-0 victory at New England, though they will be missing regular winger Paul Rothrock through injury. Our model leans toward a FC Dallas win, projecting both teams to score.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Chicago Fire sit third in the East on 48 points following three consecutive victories, though they will miss suspended midfielder Djé D'Avilla. Philadelphia Union arrive in sixth after scoring ten goals across their last three matches, led by Milan Iloski's 17 goals this campaign. The model anticipates plenty of scoring, issuing a high-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals in the match while giving a slight nod toward a Chicago Fire win.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Eastern Conference leaders Nashville SC hold the division's best defensive record, allowing only 22 goals in 28 fixtures while remaining beaten only once at home all year. They face Western Conference basement side Sporting Kansas City, who have conceded 68 goals this season and travel without Capita, Lasse Berg Johnsen and Moisés Mosquera. Our model provides a high-confidence call for a Nashville SC win, alongside a low-confidence speculative exact scoreline projection of Nashville SC 2-0 Sporting Kansas City.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC Eighth-placed Colorado Rapids have lost only three times at home all season, averaging nearly two goals per game on their own ground. Minnesota United FC have conceded heavily during an eleven-match streak without a clean sheet, leaning on Kelvin Yeboah's 15 goals to stay competitive. Our model edges cautiously toward a Colorado Rapids win with low confidence.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes Real Salt Lake have struggled for form with one win in ten matches, missing Diego Luna and Emeka Eneli through injury. Fourth-placed San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in seven league games behind Preston Judd's 15 goals, but face a testing trip without Darius Johnson and DeJuan Jones. Our model favours the home ground advantage, forecasting a Real Salt Lake win with medium confidence.
Los Angeles FC vs Austin Los Angeles FC have conceded only 0.9 goals per match at home this season, anchored by Denis Bouanga's 15 goals in attack. Austin sit 13th in the West and have kept only one clean sheet away from home all season. Our model issues a high-confidence call for a Los Angeles FC win, projecting the home side to open the scoring.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers Los Angeles Galaxy aim to tighten their back line after conceding six goals against St. Louis, having gone eight matches without a clean sheet. Portland Timbers arrive winless in five games with a 20-match run without a shutout. Our model issues a high-confidence forecast for more than 2.5 goals in the match, tilting toward a Los Angeles Galaxy win.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo San Diego average more than two goals per game at home through forward Marcus Ingvartsen, but have failed to win in five matches while conceding four against the Red Bulls. Fifth-placed Houston Dynamo travel after consecutive draws against Cincinnati and Minnesota. Our model leans with low confidence toward a San Diego win in a fixture expected to see both teams find the net.
Impact on the standings
This 15-game midweek schedule has the potential to reshape both conferences. A victory for St. Louis City would vault them above Vancouver Whitecaps into first place in the West, while a Vancouver win would create a four-point cushion at the summit. In the East, Inter Miami could cut into Nashville's lead or strengthen their hold on second place, while six sides separated by five points around the playoff line battle to stay in postseason contention.
