Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo: Third Against Seventeenth

Jong AjaxJON

Sent off:Diego Pugno 76'

Eerste Divisie

0–3

Full Time

HT 0–1

Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Ouder-Amstel

VVV VenloVEN

Edhy Zuliani 4'
Leon Schmidt 58'
Philip Heise 65' (pen)

AI ForecastsGraded

Jong Ajax's young side have leaked goals all season, shipping more than two a game, and sit near the foot of the table despite plenty of the ball. VVV Venlo arrive in the top four on the back of seven wins in their last ten, with a front line that has scored in every match this…

Match ResultAway Win45%

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High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Key facts

Jong Ajax have scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches
Pharell Nash ranks 3rd in this competition for big chances created this season (9)
VVV Venlo have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches
VVV Venlo are averaging 2.6 goals a match in this competition this season
Lars de Blok ranks 2nd in this competition for big chances created this season (9)

As they stood before kick-off.

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo: Third Against Seventeenth

Published Thu 8 Oct

Jong Ajax host VVV Venlo in the Eerste Divisie on Friday, 9 October 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst in Ouder-Amstel, with 10 points separating the two clubs in the standings.

Jong Ajax struggle for points at Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Jong Ajax sit 17th in the Eerste Divisie table with eight points from nine matches, carrying a minus-nine goal difference after conceding 22 times and scoring 13. At Sportcomplex De Toekomst, they have recorded one win, one draw, and two defeats in four league matches, scoring seven goals and conceding 10. Their recent form shows one win in their last five outings, including a 6-1 defeat away to Jong Utrecht on 14 September 2026 and a 2-0 home loss against Waalwijk on 11 September 2026, before drawing 0-0 at home against Roda on 18 September 2026. Top scorer Diego Pugno leads the attack with five goals in all competitions, but the side has conceded an average of 2.47 expected goals per match over their last five fixtures while creating 1.46.

VVV Venlo hold third place with 23 league goals

VVV Venlo enter the contest in third position with 18 points from nine games, having scored 23 goals and conceded 14. Away from home in the competition, they have two wins and two losses from four matches, scoring nine times and allowing eight. Their last match produced a 2-0 home win over Roda on 4 October 2026, which followed a 3-2 away loss at FC Volendam on 26 September 2026 and a 3-1 away win against Jong Utrecht on 18 September 2026. Top scorer Dean Zandbergen has four goals in all competitions this season. VVV Venlo have generated 1.65 expected goals per match over their last five games with chance data, while allowing 2.49 at the back.

Four wins for VVV Venlo in the last five meetings

Recent head-to-head fixtures heavily favour the visitors, who won four consecutive encounters prior to this year. VVV Venlo earned a 2-0 home victory on 3 May 2024, followed by a 1-0 away win on 1 November 2024, a 1-0 home victory on 7 March 2025, and a 4-2 away win on 26 September 2025. Jong Ajax halted that sequence in their most recent meeting on 17 March 2026, securing a 1-0 away victory.

Our model leans narrowly towards a VVV Venlo win

Our model leans narrowly towards a VVV Venlo win. The away side sit 14 places higher in the standings, hold a 10-point advantage, and have won three of their last four league games. However, VVV Venlo allow 2.49 expected goals per game over their last five matches with chance data, matching Jong Ajax's defensive rate, and the hosts took maximum points from the last head-to-head clash in March 2026.

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