VVV Venlo vs Roda: Level on Points in Fourth and Fifth
Published
VVV Venlo host Roda in Eerste Divisie Matchweek 9 on Sunday, 4 October 2026, at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo, with both teams level on 15 points after eight matches.
VVV have scored 21 goals while Roda have conceded five
The two sides sit fourth and fifth in the table on identical points, but they have reached 15 points in opposite ways. VVV hold fourth place with a +7 goal difference, having scored 21 goals and conceded 14. Across their last five matches with chance data, they have created 1.65 expected goals a game while allowing 2.49.
Roda hold fifth place with a +4 goal difference built on restraint at both ends, scoring nine and conceding five. Their defensive structure shows in their expected goals numbers as well, conceding only 1.43 expected goals a game over their last five matches while generating 1.62. In four away league matches, Roda have scored twice and conceded twice, recording one win, two draws, and one defeat.
VVV unbeaten in four straight meetings against Roda
VVV have controlled recent meetings between the clubs, going unbeaten in four consecutive encounters dating back to 2024. The sides drew 2-2 on 26 January 2026, following a 3-1 home win for VVV on 24 August 2025 and a 4-1 away win for VVV on 29 March 2025. Roda last won this fixture on 7 April 2024 with a 2-1 home victory.
VVV have collected nine points from a possible 12 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season, winning three and losing one while scoring 12 goals and conceding six. Roda, however, travel having gone unbeaten across their last five matches in all competitions, most recently defeating Waalwijk 2-0 on 26 September 2026.
Dean Zandbergen and Marco Tol lead their respective scoring charts
Dean Zandbergen leads VVV with four goals in all competitions this season, spearheading an attack that put four past Emmen on 30 August 2026 and three past both TOP Oss and Jong Utrecht in September. Roda's leading scorer is Marco Tol with two goals, reflecting a side that relies on low-scoring results rather than individual output.
Our model leans narrowly towards a VVV Venlo win
Our model leans narrowly towards a VVV Venlo win. The call is supported by VVV's strong home record of three wins from four matches at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - and their four-match unbeaten run against Roda. That projection remains low confidence because of VVV's open back line, which has conceded 2.49 expected goals per game, against a Roda team that has lost only once on the road this season.
