QPR vs Derby: Eight Derby Absentees at Loftus Road
Published
QPR host Derby in the Championship on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at Loftus Road in London, with the visitors sitting 23rd in the division and missing eight players through injury.
Derby arrive missing eight injured players
Derby enter Matchweek 10 in the relegation zone with six points from nine games, having scored eight goals and conceded 15. The away side are without eight sidelined players: Charlie Taylor, Craig Forsyth, Derry Murkin, Eiran Cashin, Jacob Widell Zetterström, Matthew Clarke, Max Johnston, and Patrick Agyemang. That extensive list follows a five-game winless stretch in the Championship, including a 1-1 draw at home to Wrexham on 10 October 2026 and a 1-1 draw at Burnley on 19 September 2026, alongside earlier defeats to Birmingham, West Brom, and West Ham. Over their last five matches with chance data, Derby have generated 0.84 expected goals per game while allowing 1.83. Sammie Szmodics represents their primary threat with three goals this season, but their away record stands at one win, one draw, and two defeats from four matches.
QPR seek first win in five after four straight draws
QPR occupy eighth place in the Championship table with 14 points from nine matches, scoring 11 and conceding eight. The home side enter Wednesday following four consecutive league draws: 1-1 away at West Ham on 9 October 2026, 2-2 at home against Preston on 19 September 2026, 1-1 at West Brom on 12 September 2026, and 0-0 at Charlton on 9 September 2026. At Loftus Road in the Championship, QPR have one win, two draws, and one loss, having scored four goals and conceded four. Karamoko Dembélé is ruled out with an injury, while top scorer Ilias Chair, who has two goals in all competitions, remains doubtful. Across their last five matches with underlying chance data, QPR have created 1.30 expected goals per game and conceded 1.46.
Our model expects a QPR win
Our forecasting model expects a QPR win on Wednesday. Although Derby won the previous two meetings between the sides—a 3-2 victory at Loftus Road on 25 April 2026 and a 1-0 win on 25 October 2025—the visitors' severe injury list and defensive concessions tilt the match towards the hosts. Derby allow 1.83 expected goals per game and sit 15 places below QPR in the standings, giving the London side an opportunity to convert their run of draws into three points.
