AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II

AD Ceuta FC face Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta. The hosts enter Matchweek 7 bottom of the division with one point from six matches, facing visitors who have not lost away from home this season.

Ceuta sit 22nd after conceding 16 goals

AD Ceuta FC collected their first point of the league campaign on 20 September 2026 in a 1-1 draw against Valladolid, halting a sequence of four consecutive defeats. Across their opening six league fixtures, Ceuta have scored three goals and conceded 16, leaving them 22nd in the table with a goal difference of minus-13. Over their last five matches with available chance data, they have created 0.54 expected goals per game while allowing 1.24. Top scorer Carlos Hernández has scored two of their three goals in all competitions, but Ceuta remain without a home victory after recording one draw and two defeats in three fixtures at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.

Real Sociedad II remain unbeaten away from home

Real Sociedad II sit 12th in the table with eight points, scoring eight goals and allowing seven through their opening six fixtures. Although their previous fixture was a 1-0 home defeat against Mallorca on 19 September 2026, their away record stands at two wins and one draw from three games. They recorded a 2-1 victory at Albacete on 22 August, drew 2-2 at Burgos on 31 August, and defeated FC Andorra 3-1 on 12 September. Across their last five matches with chance data, they averaged 0.85 expected goals created and 0.91 allowed, with top scorer Gorka Gorosabel leading the squad on two goals.

Ceuta unbeaten in recent head-to-head meetings

Neither side has reported player absences ahead of the fixture. The two clubs met twice during the 2025-26 Segunda División season, with AD Ceuta FC securing four points from those encounters. Ceuta won 3-1 away against Real Sociedad II on 21 December 2025 before the teams played out a 0-0 draw at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube on 10 April 2026.

Our model leans towards a Real Sociedad II win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Real Sociedad II win. The call reflects Real Sociedad II's away record of two wins and a draw from three trips, backed by seven goals scored on the road. AD Ceuta FC have conceded 16 goals in six matches and average 0.54 expected goals created, although their unbeaten record in last season's head-to-head fixtures and their recent 1-1 draw against Valladolid show they can hold firm.