Leganes vs Castellón

Leganes host Castellón in Matchweek 7 of the Segunda División on Monday, 28 September 2026, at the Estadio Municipal de Butarque in Leganés. The visitors enter the fixture on a run of four consecutive league wins, having collected 16 points from their opening six fixtures.

Castellón carry a flawless away record

Castellón sit second in the Segunda División table having won five of their six fixtures, including all three away games. On their travels, they have scored five times and conceded twice, claiming a 2-1 victory over Girona on 12 September 2026 and a 2-1 win at Celta de Vigo II on 31 August 2026. Their attacking output has been driven by Ousmane Camara, who leads the squad with four goals in all competitions this season. Across their last five matches with chance data, Castellón generated an average of 2.40 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.83. Their most recent outing was a 5-0 home win over Tenerife on 19 September 2026.

Leganes remain unblemished at home despite chance metrics

Leganes occupy ninth place with 11 points and have won both of their home fixtures at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, scoring four goals and conceding two. That run includes a 3-2 win against Granada CF on 20 September 2026 and a 1-0 victory over Eldense on 29 August 2026. Ismaël Gharbi tops the club's scoring charts with two goals. However, the underlying numbers show vulnerability: over their last five matches with chance data, Leganes produced 1.20 expected goals per game while conceding 1.54. They have also failed to beat Castellón in their last two meetings, losing 1-0 on 29 September 2025 and 2-0 on 16 January 2026 without finding the net.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Castellón win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Castellón win. The call is supported by Castellón's superior chance creation rate of 2.40 expected goals per match compared to Leganes' 1.20, alongside their streak of three away wins from three matches. Leganes counter with a perfect home record of two wins from two games and have collected 11 points from six fixtures, which tempers the confidence level despite Castellón holding two straight shutouts in the recent head-to-head record.