Almeria vs Burgos

Almeria face Burgos in Segunda División on Saturday, 3 October 2026, at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almería. Third-placed Almeria enter the fixture having won all three of their home league games this season, scoring eight goals and conceding two.

Almeria have won four straight with three consecutive clean sheets

Almeria sit third in the table with 15 points from seven matches, holding a plus-seven goal difference after scoring 11 and conceding four. Since a 1-0 defeat away at Sabadell on 29 August 2026, the home side have put together four consecutive victories. That sequence began with a 3-2 home win over Cadiz on 6 September 2026, followed by three straight shutouts: 2-0 away at Cordoba on 12 September 2026, 2-0 at home against Celta de Vigo II on 20 September 2026, and 1-0 away at Mallorca on 27 September 2026. Top scorer Javi Muñoz leads the squad with two goals in all competitions. Across their last five matches with chance data, Almeria have generated 1.47 expected goals per game while allowing 1.50.

Burgos arrive on a five-match unbeaten streak

Burgos trail Almeria by a single point, sitting fourth with 14 points from seven matches and a plus-four goal difference. The visitors have not lost since August, recording three wins and two draws in their last five outings. After a 2-2 draw with Real Sociedad II on 31 August 2026 and a 0-0 draw at Oviedo on 6 September 2026, Burgos have won three straight: 3-1 against AD Ceuta FC on 11 September 2026, 2-1 away at Las Palmas on 20 September 2026, and 1-0 against Eldense on 27 September 2026. Álex Forés is the club's top scorer with three goals in all competitions. In their three away fixtures in this competition, Burgos have one win, one draw, and one defeat, scoring twice and allowing twice, while conceding an average of only 1.08 expected goals per game over their last five matches.

Burgos have taken points in their last three meetings

Recent head-to-head fixtures have leaned toward Burgos, who are unbeaten across their past three encounters with Almeria. The sides drew 0-0 on 9 May 2026, following a 2-1 away win for Burgos on 14 December 2025 and a 3-1 home win for Burgos on 21 March 2025. Almeria's last victory in this fixture came on 5 October 2024 in a 2-0 home triumph.

Our model expects an Almeria win

Our model expects an Almeria win with medium confidence. Almeria have taken maximum points from three league fixtures at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this season. However, Burgos enter with five matches without defeat and conceded only one goal across their two encounters with Almeria in the 2025-26 campaign.