Segunda División Matchweek 8 brought unexpected scorelines across the board, headlined by relegation-threatened Eldense putting four goals past Oviedo in a 4-1 rout. Our forecasting model faced a challenging weekend in picking outright match winners, but it found solid footing in broader match outcomes and goal calls.
How our forecasts did
Exact scoreline calls struggled completely across the round, failing to land a single result with zero of the 11 graded calls correct. Half-time and full-time calls also found little traction, landing just two of the 11 forecasts. The total goals projections suffered in high-scoring fixtures, producing three correct calls from 11 attempts, while match result calls finished below par with four of the 11 projections landing.
On the positive side, win or draw calls performed best of all, returning 10 correct forecasts from 11 matches. Both teams to score calls also proved reliable, finishing right in eight of the 11 games. In the first team to score projections, five of the 11 calls landed.
Results
Eldense 4-1 Oviedo Oviedo arrived with five clean sheets from their opening seven games, but Eldense ran riot after Oviedo opened the scoring, putting four past the division's meanest defence. That overturned our low-confidence call for an away win and broke our projection of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Albacete 1-3 Eibar Eibar continued their run of form on the road, earning their fourth consecutive away win at the expense of winless Albacete. Our match result call for an Eibar victory landed, as did our medium-confidence call for both teams to score.
Almeria 2-1 Burgos Almeria made it five consecutive league wins with a hard-fought home victory over previously unbeaten Burgos. The medium-confidence forecast for an Almeria win proved correct, though Burgos found a consolation goal to foil our clean-sheet projection.
Cadiz 4-0 Leganes Bottom-placed Cadiz entered the match winless in seven outings but delivered a four-goal demolition of Leganes. The projection favoured the visitors in a low-confidence call, which Cadiz dismantled from the outset.
Real Sociedad II 2-3 Granada CF Granada CF ended their four-match winless spell in an entertaining five-goal contest against Real Sociedad II. Our call for both teams to score hit comfortably, though the home win projection missed as the visitors edged the contest.
Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II Sporting Gijon held on in a five-goal thriller at El Molinón. Our firmest call of the weekend landed as the high-confidence forecast for a Sporting Gijon win came through, alongside successful calls for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC League leaders Castellón dropped points at home against an AD Ceuta side that had lost repeatedly on the road. The high-confidence call for a home win was denied when the visitors equalised, though the win or draw forecast remained intact.
Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid Valladolid fought back to earn a share of the points in a four-goal draw. The model missed on the home win and low goal count, but the projection for both teams to score landed.
Girona 0-0 Mallorca Missing leading scorer Yáser Asprilla, Girona could not break down Mallorca in a scoreless stalemate at Montilivi. The match produced our single win or draw miss of the round, as neither side found a path to goal.
Sabadell 0-0 FC Andorra Sabadell's winning run at home was halted by Andorra in a disciplined defensive display. Our medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals proved accurate, alongside the forecast for at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet.
Cordoba 3-2 Tenerife Cordoba ended their three-match losing slide by edging Tenerife in an action-packed encounter. Our medium-confidence forecast for a Cordoba win landed, supported by successful calls for more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Cordoba leading at both intervals.
What we got wrong
The model's sharpest miscalculations came from backing pre-round defensive numbers too heavily. In Eldense against Oviedo, Oviedo had conceded only twice all season and kept five clean sheets, leading our model to project an Oviedo away win and fewer than 2.5 goals. Instead, an Eldense side that had managed only four goals across seven matches found the net four times.
A similar blind spot struck in Cadiz versus Leganes. Cadiz sat at the bottom of the table without a victory in seven matches, and the model favoured a steady Leganes side to edge a low-scoring encounter. Instead, Cadiz produced four goals without reply, completely flipping the expectations of their attack.
Round impact
Matchweek 8 tightened the lower half of the Segunda División table as previously winless sides found their finishing touch, while Castellón's draw allowed chasing clubs like Eibar and Almeria to close ground near the summit.
