Almeria vs Leganes: Perfect Home Record for Hosts
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Almeria host Leganes in Segunda División on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Power Horse Stadium in Almería, having won each of their last five league matches. The hosts sit third in the table with 18 points from eight games, while Leganes are 13th with 11 points after suffering consecutive defeats.
Almeria boast four wins from four at home
Almeria have built their promotion push on an unblemished record at Power Horse Stadium. They have won all four home matches in Segunda División this season, scoring 10 goals and conceding three. Their recent form spans five straight league victories, starting with a 3-2 victory against Cadiz on 6 September, followed by 2-0 wins over Cordoba and Celta de Vigo II, a 1-0 result at Mallorca on 27 September, and a 2-1 defeat of Burgos on 3 October. Over their last five outings with chance data, Almeria generated 1.75 expected goals per game while allowing 1.34. Miguel de la Fuente leads their scoring charts with three goals across all competitions.
Leganes struggle for goals on the road
Leganes travel to Almería having won just once in five away fixtures in the division, drawing two and losing two. Across those five road games, they have scored two goals and conceded seven. Their recent fixtures have yielded three defeats from four, including a 2-0 loss at Tenerife on 13 September, a 2-0 home defeat against Castellón on 28 September, and a 4-0 loss away to Cadiz on 3 October. In their last five matches with available data, Leganes produced 1.35 expected goals per game while allowing 1.60. Their primary attacking threat is Ismaël Gharbi, who has two goals in all competitions this season. Head-to-head records also favor the home team, as Almeria won both previous meetings between the clubs: 3-0 away on 22 November 2025 and 2-1 at home on 5 April 2026.
Three defensive concerns for the hosts
Almeria enter the contest without injured duo Gui Guedes and Rodrigo Ely, while midfielder Mikel Vesga remains doubtful through injury. Leganes have a cleaner bill of health, though defender Marcos Leiva is confirmed out with an injury.
Our model expects an Almeria win
Our model expects an Almeria win, supported by the four-match home winning run and a five-game overall winning sequence in Segunda División. Leganes arrive having conceded six unanswered goals across their last two fixtures against Castellón and Cadiz, alongside an away record of only two goals scored in five outings.
