Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II: One Home Goal

Sporting GijonGIJ

Antonio Casas 33', 45+11'
Guille Rosas 60'

Segunda División

3–2

Full Time

HT 2–1

Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Gijón

Celta de Vigo IICEL

Oscar Marcos 8'
Aldrine Kibet 78'
Sent off:Pablo Meixus 45+9'

AI ForecastsGraded

Sporting Gijon look to extend their recent overall surge when they host a Celta de Vigo II side that has found consistency hard to come by on the road. Gijon’s defensive discipline at El Molinón has made them hard to break down, with three clean sheets in their last five at…

Match ResultHome Win60%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.85xG1.53

50%Possession50%

13 (7)Shots (on target)14 (8)

2Big Chances Created5

Attacking Play

2.92xG on Target0.85

Possession & Passing

468 · 83%Passes (accuracy)482 · 84%

6Corners6

Duels & Pressing

38Duels Won50

9 (36%)Aerial Duels Won16 (64%)

Defending & Discipline

5Saves4

14Fouls10

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II: One Home Goal

Published Sat 3 Oct

Sporting Gijon host Celta de Vigo II in Segunda División on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón, seeking to improve a home return of just one goal across four league games.

Sporting Gijon have scored once in four home matches

Sporting Gijon enter Matchweek 8 in 12th place with 10 points from 7 matches, carrying a goal difference of -1 after scoring 5 times and conceding 6. Their recent league run shows sharp contrast between home and away fixtures. Away from home, they beat FC Andorra 3-1 on 19 September 2026 and Tenerife 1-0 on 28 August 2026, before falling 2-0 at Oviedo on 27 September 2026. At Estadio Municipal El Molinón, however, they have managed one win, one draw, and two defeats in four outings, scoring only once while conceding three. Their last two home matches brought consecutive defeats: 2-0 against Girona on 5 September 2026 and 1-0 against Eldense on 13 September 2026. Across their last five fixtures with chance data, they generated 1.17 expected goals per game while allowing 1.09.

Celta de Vigo II concede 1.50 expected goals a game

Celta de Vigo II sit 16th in the table with 8 points from 7 fixtures, scoring 8 goals and conceding 11 for a goal difference of -3. Their underlying defensive metrics explain much of that concession rate: over their last five matches with chance data, they have conceded 1.50 expected goals per game while generating 1.28. The visitors have managed one win in their last five outings, a 2-0 away victory at AD Ceuta FC on 5 September 2026. Since then, they lost 4-0 at home to Eibar on 14 September 2026, fell 2-0 away at Almeria on 20 September 2026, and drew 1-1 at home with Sabadell on 26 September 2026. Their primary attacking threat remains forward Álvaro Marín, who has scored 3 goals in all competitions this season. Away from home in Segunda División, Celta de Vigo II have recorded one win, one draw, and one loss from three matches, scoring twice and allowing two goals.

Our model firmly expects a Sporting Gijon win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Sporting Gijon win on Sunday. That call rests heavily on Celta de Vigo II's defensive vulnerabilities, highlighted by the 11 goals and 1.50 expected goals per game they have allowed this season. However, Sporting Gijon's own scoring record at Estadio Municipal El Molinón—just one goal in four home fixtures—presents a complication that the home side must resolve to justify that projection.

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