Czechia vs Croatia

Czechia host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, 26 September 2026, at Fortuna Arena in Prague, with the hosts looking to halt a three-match winless run.

Czechia struggle to generate scoring chances

Czechia arrive into the opening fixture of League A after failing to win any of their previous three outings in summer competition. The hosts were beaten 3-0 by Mexico on 25 June 2026, held to a 1-1 draw by South Africa on 18 June 2026, and lost 2-1 against South Korea on 12 June 2026.

The underlying metrics highlight ongoing difficulties in front of goal. Over their last three fixtures with chance data recorded, Czechia generated an average of 0.78 expected goals per match while conceding 1.72 expected goals at the other end.

Croatia edge results despite limited production

Croatia enter the fixture following mixed competitive form across June and July. Their most recent appearance ended in a 2-1 defeat against Portugal on 2 July 2026, which followed consecutive tournament victories: a 2-1 win over Ghana on 27 June 2026 and a 1-0 success against Panama on 23 June 2026. Prior to that, they suffered a 4-2 defeat against England on 17 June 2026.

Across their last four competitive fixtures with recorded tracking, Croatia created an average of just 0.64 expected goals per game while surrendering 1.44 expected goals against. Despite these narrow margins, they managed two victories across that four-match sequence.

Our model expects a Croatia win

Our model expects a Croatia win. The call reflects Czechia's defensive vulnerability, having allowed five goals across their last two competitive outings, combined with Croatia's track record of turning low-margin performances into results against tournament opposition.