Norway vs Denmark

Norway take on Denmark in League A Matchweek 1 of the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, 24 September 2026 at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo, returning to action after their run to the World Cup quarter-finals.

Norway build on high-scoring World Cup campaign

The hosts return to competitive action after an eventful summer in which they defeated Senegal 3-2, Ivory Coast 2-1, and Brazil 2-1 before bowing out with a 1-2 defeat to England on 11 July 2026. Across their last five recorded fixtures, Norway produced 1.48 expected goals a game while allowing 1.64 at the other end.

Erling Haaland leads their forward line having registered seven goals in all competitions this season. His presence spearheads an attack that scored nine goals across five World Cup matches, even as their defence conceded nine in the same span, including a 1-4 loss to France on 26 June 2026.

Denmark start without Andreas Christensen

Denmark open their Nations League campaign on the road with changes in personnel. Manager Brian Riemer travels to Oslo without centre-back Andreas Christensen, who sustained a thigh injury and is ruled out of the fixture, while midfielder Christian Eriksen also remains out of the squad.

Those absences leave defensive responsibilities to a group featuring Joachim Andersen, Victor Nelsson, and Rasmus Nissen Kristensen. In attack, Denmark have selected Rasmus Hojlund and Kasper Dolberg alongside midfielders Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Morten Hjulmand to handle Norway's physical approach.

Our model expects a Norway win

Our forecasting model expects a Norway win at Ullevaal Stadion, assigning medium confidence to the home side. That call rests largely on Erling Haaland's output of seven goals this season and Norway's results against top-tier opposition in July, including their 2-1 victory over Brazil. However, Norway's concession of 1.64 expected goals per match over their last five games gives Denmark route to threaten if the hosts leave spaces at the back.