England vs Spain: Five Straight Wins for Spain

EnglandENG

Anthony Gordon 36'
Harry Kane 40'

UEFA Nations League

2–3

Full Time

HT 2–1

The City Ground

Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

SpainESP

Lamine Yamal 2'
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 60'
Mikel Oyarzabal 74'

AI ForecastsGraded

England open their Nations League campaign under the Wembley lights against a Spain side that has barely conceded a goal in the last eight matches. Spain arrive with seven wins and just a single goal against in that run, while England have been involved in high-scoring affairs…

Match ResultAway Win40%

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Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

1.74xG3.12

47%Possession53%

13 (5)Shots (on target)15 (5)

2Big Chances Created4

Attacking Play

40Final Third Entries45

30Penalty Area Entries8

Possession & Passing

441 · –Passes (accuracy)512 · –

6Corners3

10Poss. Won — Def 3rd17

29Poss. Won — Mid 3rd15

Duels & Pressing

39 (47%)Duels Won44 (53%)

4 (36%)Aerial Duels Won7 (64%)

47Ball Recoveries47

11.8PPDA (Pressing)11.1

Defending & Discipline

2Saves3

11Fouls16

England vs Spain: Five Straight Wins for Spain

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Spain	4	7	12
2	England	4	11	9
3	Croatia	4	-10	3
4

Published Sat 26 Sept

England host Spain in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at Wembley Stadium in London, with the visitors arriving on a five-match winning run.

Spain allow 0.36 expected goals across five games

Spain won their last five matches, conceding only one goal across the sequence. They defeated Austria 3-0 on 2 July 2026, beat Portugal 1-0 on 6 July 2026, topped Belgium 2-1 on 10 July 2026, defeated France 2-0 on 14 July 2026, and edged Argentina 1-0 on 19 July 2026. Across their last five matches with chance data, Spain generated 2.05 expected goals per game while conceding only 0.36. Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain in scoring with 5 goals in all competitions this season under manager Luis de la Fuente.

England concede more chances than they create

England concluded July with a high-scoring 6-4 victory against France on 18 July 2026, following a 2-1 defeat to Argentina on 15 July 2026. Earlier fixtures produced a 2-1 win over Norway on 11 July 2026, a 3-2 win against Mexico on 6 July 2026, and a 2-1 victory over Congo DR on 1 July 2026. Despite winning four of those five matches, England conceded 1.63 expected goals per game while creating 1.56. Jude Bellingham is England's top scorer with 7 goals across all competitions this season. Manager Thomas Tuchel enters the match without Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, and Marcus Rashford, who withdrew from the squad.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Spain win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Spain win. The call reflects Spain's tight defensive underlying numbers, limiting opponents to 0.36 expected goals per match during five straight wins against top international opposition. England's expected goals allowed of 1.63 and the absence of Cole Palmer and Declan Rice present difficulties, even with Jude Bellingham's 7 goals this season.

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League A · Group 3