Netherlands vs Germany

Netherlands play Germany in League A Matchweek 1 of the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, 24 September 2026, at Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam, carrying a four-match unbeaten sequence.

Netherlands enter unbeaten across four matches

The home side arrive having avoided defeat throughout their last four fixtures. Netherlands drew 1-1 at home to Morocco on 30 June 2026, won 3-1 away at Tunisia on 25 June 2026, defeated Sweden 5-1 on 20 June 2026, and drew 2-2 against Japan on 14 June 2026. Over those four outings, they scored 11 goals.

Cody Gakpo is the top scorer for Netherlands with 3 goals in all competitions this season. Across their last 4 matches with chance data, Netherlands created 1.33 expected goals a game while conceding 0.90 expected goals per match.

Germany create 2.05 expected goals a game

Germany travel to Amsterdam showing potent underlying attacking numbers. Over their last 4 matches with chance data, Germany have created 2.05 expected goals per game and conceded 0.83 expected goals on average. Kai Havertz is Germany's top scorer with 3 goals across all competitions this season.

Recent results have been mixed for the visitors. Germany drew 1-1 at home to Paraguay on 29 June 2026 and lost 1-2 away at Ecuador on 25 June 2026, following a 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast on 20 June 2026 and a 7-1 win against Curaçao on 14 June 2026. In head-to-head meetings between the two nations, Germany won 1-0 on 14 October 2024 and drew 2-2 on 10 September 2024.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Netherlands win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Netherlands win. Netherlands hold home advantage at Johan Cruijff ArenA alongside a four-match unbeaten run, supported by an average of just 0.90 expected goals allowed per match. Germany present a stern challenge with 2.05 expected goals created per game and an unbeaten record in the two meetings from 2024, but their 1-2 defeat to Ecuador and 1-1 draw with Paraguay show recent vulnerability that tempers their threat.