Türkiye vs France: Mbappé Leads Attack in Kocaeli

TürkiyeTUR

Sent off:Uğurcan Çakır 87'

UEFA Nations League

0–1

Full Time

HT 0–0

Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Kocaeli

FranceFRA

Kylian Mbappé 54'

AI ForecastsGraded

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Türkiye will look to harness home advantage in Kocaeli, where they famously beat France 2-0 back in 2019, but Les Bleus arrive in rutherless form having won six of their last eight. The hosts generate high-quality chances — their rolling expected-goals figure is over two per game — yet have struggled to convert, failing to score in two of their last three. France’s defensive structure, conceding barey a goal per away match, presents the sternest test, and the Turiskish backline must be wary of a Freanch attack that averages over two goals a match. The midfield battle, where both sides like to control possession, could decide whether this becomes an open contest or a tactical afair.

Match ResultAway Win67%

France’s blend of defensive solidity and attacking output — six wins in eight and only two goals conceded in their last two away matches — gives them the edge over a Turiskish side that has lost two of its last three.

Win or DrawAway or Draw87%

France should avoid defeat given their superior recent results and an expected-goals tally that dwarfs Türkiyes, making a home win unlikely.

Total Goals3 or more goals66%

Both teams have posted strong expected-goals numbers — France at 2.15 per match and Türkiye at 2.17 — and with the hosts defense allowing big chances, a match with three or more goals is the likely outcome.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Türkiye vs France: Mbappé Leads Attack in Kocaeli

Published Fri 25 Sept

Türkiye host France in UEFA Nations League League A Matchweek 1 on Friday, 25 September 2026 at Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu in Kocaeli, with the visitors fielding Kylian Mbappé in his first fixture under Zinédine Zidane.

Türkiye missing Calhanoglu and Yildiz

Türkiye concluded their 2026 World Cup schedule with a 3-2 win against USA on 26 June 2026, preceded by a 1-0 loss to Paraguay on 20 June and a 2-0 defeat against Australia on 14 June. Across their last three matches with chance data, the hosts produced 2.17 expected goals per match and allowed 1.21.

Manager Vincenzo Montella faces selection limits for this opening fixture. Midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu and attacker Kenan Yildiz are both sidelined with injuries, leaving Juventus defender Zeki Celik as the lone Serie A representative named in the home squad alongside domestic forwards Baris Alper Yilmaz, Irfan Can Kahveci, and Kerem Akturkoglu.

France bring Mbappé into Zidane era

France arrive in Kocaeli for Zidane's first competitive fixture in charge following the departure of Didier Deschamps. During their summer tournament campaign, France recorded victories over Sweden (3-0 on 30 June), Paraguay (1-0 on 4 July), and Morocco (2-0 on 9 July) before suffering a 2-0 defeat to Spain on 14 July and a 6-4 loss to England on 18 July.

Over their last five games with chance metrics, the visitors created 2.15 expected goals and conceded 1.03 per match. Kylian Mbappé arrives as France's main attacking threat, having scored 10 goals in all competitions this season. Zidane omitted N'Golo Kante and left out Aurélien Tchouaméni to allow recovery from a recent muscle injury, but retains defensive foundation through Mike Maignan, Dayot Upamecano, and Jules Kounde.

Our model firmly expects a France win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a France win. The visitors hold a defensive edge with just 1.03 expected goals allowed per match across their last five outings, backed by Mbappé's 10-goal output this season. Türkiye showed attacking output with 2.17 expected goals per game in their recent fixtures, but the confirmed absences of Calhanoglu and Yildiz deplete their midfield creativity.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4	Türkiye	4	-9	0

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