Wales vs Norway

Wales face Norway in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, 1 October 2026, at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd, with the home side seeking their first goal and point in League A - Group 4.

Wales sit fourth after consecutive away shutouts

Wales opened their campaign with a 1-0 defeat away at Portugal on 24 September 2026, followed by a 2-0 loss away at Denmark on 27 September 2026. Those two results leave Wales fourth of four teams in Group 4 with zero points and a goal difference of -3 from two fixtures, having conceded three times without finding the net.

Norway average 1.55 expected goals with Haaland on 10

Norway sit second in Group 4 with three points from their first two matches, having scored four goals and conceded four. They started the group stage with a 3-2 victory over Denmark on 24 September 2026 before taking a 1-2 defeat against Portugal on 27 September 2026. Before the Nations League, Norway recorded 2-1 victories against Ivory Coast on 30 June 2026 and Brazil on 5 July 2026, followed by a 2-1 defeat to England on 11 July 2026.

Erling Haaland leads Norway's attack with 10 goals in all competitions this season, including two goals in the 3-2 win against Denmark. Across their last five matches with available data, Norway created 1.55 expected goals a game and allowed 1.46, reflecting active and open contests at both ends of the pitch.

Our model firmly expects a Norway win

Our model firmly expects a Norway win at Cardiff City Stadium. That call aligns with Norway's attacking return of four goals in two group games, supported by Erling Haaland's 10-goal tally this season and an average of 1.55 expected goals per match. In contrast, Wales have zero points and zero goals after their opening fixtures against Portugal and Denmark.