Portugal vs Norway: Hosts Hold Perfect Group Record

PortugalPOR

João Cancelo 38'
Gonçalo Ramos 79'
Sent off:Francisco Conceição 86'

UEFA Nations League

2–1

Full Time

HT 1–1

Estádio Do Dragão

Porto

NorwayNOR

Kristoffer Ajer 36'

AI ForecastsGraded

Portugal top the group with nine points from three matches and return to Porto smarting from last week's defeat in Oslo, so the dynamic is set for a sharp response. Norway's only win in the section came in that reverse fixture, but they remain without a clean sheet in the group…

Match ResultHome Win58%

6 more forecasts lockedSign in to see them

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Live ForecastBetaPRO

Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

1.78xG0.45

59%Possession41%

20 (7)Shots (on target)9 (3)

2Big Chances Created0

Attacking Play

65Final Third Entries34

23Penalty Area Entries21

Possession & Passing

496 · 87%Passes (accuracy)351 · 78%

6Corners4

11Poss. Won — Def 3rd20

14Poss. Won — Mid 3rd8

Duels & Pressing

38 (55%)Duels Won31 (45%)

10 (53%)Aerial Duels Won9 (47%)

37Ball Recoveries33

20.1PPDA (Pressing)19.6

Defending & Discipline

2Saves5

8Fouls7

Portugal vs Norway: Hosts Hold Perfect Group Record

Published Sun 4 Oct

Portugal host Norway in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 4 October 2026 at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto, having won all three of their group matches to sit top of League A - Group 4.

Portugal lead Group 4 with nine points from three games

The home side enter Matchday 4 with maximum points, holding a four-goal goal difference after scoring seven times and conceding three across their first three fixtures. They started the campaign with a 1-0 home win over Wales on 24 September, beat Norway 2-1 on 27 September, and defeated Denmark 4-2 on 1 October. Over their last five matches with chance data, Portugal have created 1.69 expected goals per game while allowing 1.47.

João Félix leads Portugal with three goals this season in all competitions, having struck against both Wales and Norway. In their only previous home fixture in this Nations League campaign, Portugal kept a clean sheet against Wales. Their only listed fitness concern is Francisco Conceição, who is doubtful due to injury.

Haaland has ten goals but Norway lose Heggem to suspension

Norway arrive in Porto in third place in League A - Group 4 with three points from three games, having won once and lost twice. Ståle Solbakken's side began with a 3-2 home win over Denmark on 24 September but dropped their next two games by a 2-1 scoreline, first at home to Portugal and then away at Wales on 1 October. In their sole away outing in the group, they were beaten 2-1 in Cardiff.

Erling Haaland has scored 10 goals in all competitions this season, including Norway's lone strike in the 2-1 defeat to Portugal in September. However, Norway's defence must reshuffle without defender Torbjørn Heggem, who misses the match through suspension. Across their last five fixtures with chance data, Norway have generated 1.41 expected goals a game and allowed 1.40.

Our model expects a Portugal win

Our model expects a Portugal win, giving the home side the edge with medium confidence. That call reflects Portugal's run of three consecutive group wins, including their 2-1 victory over Norway seven days earlier, combined with Norway's two consecutive defeats and the defensive absence of Heggem.

Match Stats

Shot Map

Momentum

Match Events

Player Ratings

Lineups

Head to Head