France vs Italy: Consecutive Clean Sheets for Les Bleus

FranceFRA

Michael Olise 55'
Sent off:Dayot Upamecano 85'

UEFA Nations League

1–1

Full Time

HT 0–0

Stade de France

Saint-Denis

ItalyITA

Alessandro Bastoni 68'

AI ForecastsGraded

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France top the group with two wins and two clean sheets, their defensive shape looking solid after a summer of transition. Italy arrive having thumped Wales 4-1 away but then slumped to a 0-2 home defeat against Belgium, raising questions about their consistency. The last three meetings between these sides have all produced four goals, with the away side winning each time, so the Stade de France crowd may not guarantee comfort. The key duel will be France's high press against Italy's midfield – if the hosts can pin Jorginho's deep-lying playmaker role early, their wide combinations through Olise and Mbappé could prove decisive.

Match ResultHome Win66%

France arrive on the back of eight wins in ten matches, a perfect group record with no goals conceded, and a stronger underlying chance creation profile, while Italy are reeling from a home loss to Belgium.

Win or DrawHome or Draw85%

France have not lost a competitive home game to Italy in over a decade, are unbeaten in the group with zero goals against, and hold a large edge in squad depth and recent consistency.

Total Goals3 or more goals65%

Every meeting in this fixture's history has produced three or more goals, and two-thirds of France's recent home matches have gone past the 2.5 threshold, while Italy's sole away outing finished 4-1.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

France vs Italy: Consecutive Clean Sheets for Les Bleus

Published Fri 2 Oct

France host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, 2 October 2026, at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, sitting top of League A Group 1 after opening the campaign with two consecutive 1-0 victories.

France hold first place with zero goals conceded

France lead League A Group 1 with six points from two matches, having scored two goals and conceded none. They opened the group with a 1-0 victory away at Türkiye on 25 September 2026, followed by another 1-0 win away at Belgium on 28 September 2026. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, France have created 1.73 expected goals per game while allowing 1.24. Top scorer Kylian Mbappé leads the side with 11 goals in all competitions this season.

Italy respond after opening home defeat

Italy sit third in the group with three points and a plus-one goal difference from two matches. Their campaign began with a 2-0 home loss against Belgium on 25 September 2026, but they answered three days later with a 4-1 victory away at Türkiye on 28 September 2026. That result gives Italy one win from one match on the road in this Nations League campaign, scoring four times and conceding once away from home.

Away sides dominated the 2024 meetings

The two nations split their previous two head-to-head fixtures during the 2024 Nations League, with the away team winning by a 3-1 scoreline in both encounters. Italy earned a 3-1 victory on French soil on 6 September 2024, before France answered with their own 3-1 victory in Italy on 17 November 2024.

Our model firmly expects a France win

Our model firmly expects a France win. The forecast reflects France's unblemished start to Group 1, where they have collected maximum points without conceding a goal across away trips to Türkiye and Belgium. While Italy displayed attacking power in their 4-1 away win against Türkiye, France enter Saint-Denis with defensive stability and an expected goals balance of 1.73 created to 1.24 conceded.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4

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