Greece vs Netherlands: Hosts Top Group After Germany Win
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Greece face Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, 1 October 2026 at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki, entering the match in first place in League A - Group 2 after back-to-back away victories.
Greece top Group 2 with consecutive away wins
Greece hold top spot in League A - Group 2 with six points from two games, scoring three goals and conceding one. They opened their campaign with a 2-1 win away at Serbia on 24 September 2026, then followed it with a 1-0 victory away against Germany on 27 September 2026. Those consecutive away results give them a two-point advantage over their visitors ahead of their first home fixture of the tournament.
Netherlands unbeaten behind Gakpo's four goals
Netherlands sit second in the group with four points from two matches and a plus-one goal difference. They drew 1-1 at home against Germany on 24 September 2026 before collecting a 2-1 away victory over Serbia on 27 September 2026, giving them a perfect record of one win from one away fixture in the competition.
Cody Gakpo leads Netherlands in scoring this season with four goals in all competitions. In their underlying numbers over the last five matches with available chance data, Netherlands have produced 2.10 expected goals per game while allowing 1.17.
Our model expects a Netherlands win
Our model expects a Netherlands win. That position is supported by an attack generating 2.10 expected goals per game and a team that already took points from Germany and Serbia. Greece nevertheless complicate that projection having conceded only one goal across two away fixtures while taking maximum points.
