Wales vs Denmark

Wales host Denmark in UEFA Nations League League A Matchday 4 on Sunday, 4 October 2026, at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd. Just seven days earlier, Denmark secured a 2-0 victory when these two teams met on 27 September.

Denmark took points from the reverse fixture

Denmark earned their solitary group victory against Wales on 27 September with that 2-0 scoreline. Outside of that result, the Danes have struggled defensively, conceding seven goals in three League A - Group 4 fixtures. They opened their campaign with a 3-2 defeat to Norway on 24 September and fell 4-2 at home to Portugal on 1 October. M. Damsgaard leads Denmark's attack with 2 goals in all competitions this season. Across their three matches with chance data, Denmark have averaged 1.02 expected goals created per game while allowing 1.60. Midfielder Nikolas Nartey remains doubtful with an injury.

Wales earned their first group points at home

Wales enter this fixture sitting 4th in League A - Group 4 with 3 points from 3 matches and a -2 goal difference, having scored 2 and conceded 4. Craig Bellamy's side lost their first two group fixtures, falling 1-0 away to Portugal on 24 September before the 2-0 loss in Denmark. They altered that trajectory on 1 October, collecting a 2-1 home victory over Norway at Cardiff City Stadium. In their home fixtures in this competition, Wales hold a record of 1 win from 1 match. Their underlying chance generation remains modest, creating 0.85 expected goals per game while allowing 1.51 across three matches.

Our model expects a Denmark win

Our model expects a Denmark win with medium confidence. Denmark's 2-0 victory against Wales on 27 September and their higher chance creation rate of 1.02 expected goals per game support that position. However, Denmark have conceded seven goals across three group games and lost their only away trip 3-2, while Wales arrive with a 2-1 victory from their sole home appearance at Cardiff City Stadium.