Romania vs Sweden: Drăgușin Suspended After 12 Conceded
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Romania face Sweden in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 5 October 2026, at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti, with the home side seeking their first points in League B after three consecutive defeats.
Romania concede 12 goals across three straight defeats
Romania sit fourth in League B - Group 4 with zero points and a goal difference of minus nine. Their campaign began with a 2-1 defeat away at Sweden on 25 September 2026, followed by a 4-2 home loss against Bosnia and Herzegovina on 28 September and a 6-0 defeat away at Poland on 2 October. Across their last three matches with chance data, Romania generated an average of 0.65 expected goals per game while allowing 2.22.
Defensive concerns are compounded by the absence of Radu Drăgușin, who misses this fixture through suspension. Romania have conceded 12 goals across their three group matches, leaving their back line reshuffled as they attempt to improve on a home record in the competition that stands at one defeat from one game.
Sweden manage seven injuries at the top of Group 4
Sweden lead Group 4 with seven points from three fixtures, scoring six goals and conceding three. They opened with a 2-1 victory over Romania on 25 September and a 3-1 home win against Poland on 28 September, before drawing 1-1 away at Bosnia and Herzegovina on 2 October. Forward Viktor Gyökeres leads their scoring chart with four goals across all competitions this season, helping the team produce 1.04 expected goals per game while allowing 1.16 over their last five matches.
The visitors arrive in Bucureşti with seven confirmed absences due to injury. Benjamin Nygren, Carl Starfelt, Elliot Stroud, Emil Holm, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Patrik Wålemark, and Yasin Ayari are all sidelined, removing multiple options across defense and midfield.
Our model expects a Sweden win
Our model expects a Sweden win, leaning on the separation in group form between the two sides. Sweden beat Romania 2-1 just ten days earlier and remain unbeaten through three rounds, while Romania have allowed 12 goals and must reconfigure their central defense without Drăgușin. Sweden's list of seven injured players provides the primary complication to that expectation.
