Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

Kazakhstan meet Faroe Islands in UEFA Nations League C on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at Astana Arena in Astana, with the visitors having drawn each of their first three group matches 1-1.

Faroe Islands enter after three consecutive 1-1 draws

Faroe Islands sit third in League C - Group 3 with three points and an even goal difference after three identical results. They began their campaign with a 1-1 home draw against Kazakhstan on 26 September 2026, followed by a 1-1 draw away to Moldova on 29 September 2026 and another 1-1 draw at home against Slovakia on 2 October 2026.

Across those three fixtures, the visiting side has generated 1.12 expected goals per game while allowing 1.04. Their solitary away trip in the group produced one point from one fixture, leaving them two points clear of their hosts.

Kazakhstan seek first victory with Satpaev sidelined

Kazakhstan occupy fourth place in Group 3 with one point from three matches, scoring three goals and conceding five. Following their opening 1-1 draw in Torshavn against Faroe Islands on 26 September 2026, they suffered consecutive 2-1 losses, falling away to Slovakia on 29 September 2026 and at home to Moldova on 2 October 2026.

Their sole home outing in this tournament ended in that 1-2 defeat to Moldova at Astana Arena. Kazakhstan enter this encounter without Dastan Satpaev, who is ruled out through injury. Over their last three games with chance data, Kazakhstan have created 0.56 expected goals per match while conceding 1.22.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Kazakhstan win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Kazakhstan win, assigning low confidence to the outcome. While Kazakhstan possess home advantage at Astana Arena, their defensive record of five goals conceded in three matches and an underlying generation of 0.56 expected goals per game balance against a Faroe Islands side that has avoided defeat across all three group fixtures.