Moldova vs Slovakia

Moldova face Slovakia in League C Matchday 4 of the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău. Slovakia hold a three-point advantage at the summit of Group 3 after defeating Moldova 2-0 ten days prior.

Slovakia yield half an expected goal per game

Slovakia lead League C - Group 3 with 7 points from three matches, having scored five goals and allowed two. They opened their campaign with a 2-0 home victory against Moldova on 26 September, followed by a 2-1 win over Kazakhstan on 29 September and a 1-1 away draw with Faroe Islands on 2 October.

The visitors have limited their opponents effectively, conceding an average of 0.50 expected goals per game across their last three matches while generating 1.30. However, Slovakia must manage without midfielder Lászlo Bénes, who is sidelined with an injury.

Moldova recover with away win in Kazakhstan

Moldova sit second in Group 3 with 4 points from their first three fixtures, posting a goal difference of -1 from three goals scored and four conceded. After their opening 2-0 loss to Slovakia, they drew 1-1 at home to Faroe Islands on 29 September and recorded their first victory on 2 October with a 2-1 away win against Kazakhstan.

The home side enter the match with no reported absences. Across their last three fixtures with chance tracking, Moldova have produced 1.06 expected goals per game while conceding 1.27. At Stadionul Zimbru, their lone group appearance ended in that 1-1 draw against Faroe Islands.

Our model firmly expects a Slovakia win

Our model firmly expects a Slovakia win. Slovakia controlled the previous meeting on 26 September in a 2-0 victory, backed by chance numbers that hold opponents to 0.50 expected goals per game. Moldova enter on the back of a 2-1 away victory against Kazakhstan, but their defensive rate of 1.27 expected goals conceded per game favours the visiting group leaders.