Montenegro vs Armenia: Hosts Hold Perfect Start
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Montenegro face Armenia in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 5 October 2026 at Podgorica City Stadium in Podgorica, with the home side sitting top of League C Group 2 having collected maximum points from their first three fixtures.
Montenegro take maximum points from first three fixtures
Montenegro lead Group 2 with nine points from three games, scoring seven goals and conceding four. They opened their campaign with a 2-1 home victory over Cyprus on 25 September 2026, followed by a 3-2 away win against Armenia on 28 September and a 2-1 away win at Latvia on 2 October. In their lone home fixture in the competition so far, they secured that 2-1 result against Cyprus.
Across their last three matches with available chance metrics, Montenegro created an average of 2.03 expected goals per game while allowing 0.91. N. Krstović leads the squad with two goals this season in all competitions. For this encounter, Adam Marušić is listed as doubtful due to injury.
Armenia arrive after back-to-back defeats
Armenia sit third in the four-team standings with three points from three games and a minus-one goal difference, having scored four times and conceded five. After starting the campaign with a 2-0 home victory against Latvia on 25 September, they suffered a 3-2 home loss against Montenegro on 28 September and a 2-0 defeat away at Cyprus on 2 October.
In their only away match of the competition to date, Armenia failed to score and conceded two goals. Over their last three games with chance data, they generated 0.91 expected goals per match and allowed 0.72. They will be without Edgar Sevikyan, who misses the match through suspension.
Our model firmly expects a Montenegro win
Our model firmly expects a Montenegro win at Podgorica City Stadium. The home side have won all three fixtures in the section, including the 3-2 victory in the reverse meeting on 28 September. Montenegro also generate over two expected goals per match compared to Armenia's 0.91, while the visitors travel without Edgar Sevikyan following an away loss in Cyprus.
