Belarus vs Finland

Belarus face Finland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest, seven days after the two sides played out a 0-0 draw.

Finland lead the table despite five absentees

Finland sit first in League C - Group 1 with seven points from three fixtures and a goal difference of +8. After opening their campaign with a 7-0 victory away at San Marino on 26 September 2026 and the scoreless draw against Belarus, they defeated Albania 2-1 on 3 October 2026. Top scorer L. Walta leads the squad with four goals across all competitions this season.

However, the Finnish squad travels without five players. Midfielder Kaan Kairinen misses out through suspension, while goalkeeper Jesse Joronen and outfield trio Naatan Skyttä, Niklas Pyyhtiä, and Ville Koski are sidelined with injuries. Despite those absences, Finland have maintained strong chance numbers over their last three matches with data, generating 1.64 expected goals per game while conceding only 0.50.

Belarus seek attack after keeping Finland quiet

Belarus are third in the group with four points from three games. Following a 2-0 loss away at Albania on 26 September 2026, they took a point in the 0-0 stalemate against Finland and followed it with a 4-0 home victory against San Marino on 3 October 2026. Top scorer A. Kontsevoy has two goals in all competitions this season.

Chance metrics highlight the work required going forward. Across their last three matches with available data, Belarus have averaged 0.71 expected goals created while allowing 1.05. Viktor Gancharenko’s side carries a clean bill of health with no reported injuries or suspensions, having already demonstrated they can restrict Finland's attack in their previous meeting.

Our model expects a Finland win

Our forecasting model expects a Finland win. That stance is reinforced by Finland's group-leading return of nine goals scored and just one conceded across three games, coupled with their 1.64 expected goals per match. Belarus's lower attacking output of 0.71 expected goals complicates their path, though their defensive display in the 0-0 draw on 29 September shows they can frustrate the group leaders.